Sensex crossed 85K for first time 2 years ago, now down 10K points from milestone. What can trigger the next bull run?
Sensex’s journey to cross 85,000 for the first time ever on September 24, 2024 saw the benchmark index sprinting across milestones amid multiple tailwinds. In just five months after hitting 75,000 for the first time, Sensex sprinted 10,000 points to cross the milestone following the US Federal Reserve’s 50-basis point rate cut.
While the optimism remained high, the market soon faced multiple headwinds. The benchmark index plunged after the record-breaking run, dropping around 16% to hit a low of 71,425 in April 2025 as Donald Trump’s tariff flipflops and other key factors dampened sentiment. But markets soon staged a massive recovery.
Sensex soared nearly 15,000 points or 20% in eight months to create a new all time high record of 86,159 in December, 2025. But little did investors know what 2026 would bring them. Just a few months into the new year, new AI innovations sparked a sharp selloff in India’s much touted IT stocks, dragging the index down. But the raging war in the Middle East was the worst headwind among all. Oil prices massively soared, FII outflows intensified and investors lost massive sums of money.
Sensex dropped to a low of 71,546 in April 2026 amid these headwinds, nearly wiping out all gains recorded during the short-lived bull run as it remained close to the 71,425 low the index hit in the same month last year. The benchmark index currently trades around 75,000. While it has recovered some of the losses from the 2026 low of 71,546 it hit in April, the index is still significantly lower than the milestones it hit last year and the year before that.
Why has Sensex fallen 12% from the milestone?
Sensex crossing 85,000 in September 2024 marked a milestone, but the journey since then has been a classic phase of price and time correction, said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking. From the peak, the market has faced a combination of expensive crude, elevated global bond yields, a weaker rupee, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed FPI selling, he added.The fall from 85,000 is less an India problem and more about what oil and money cost globally, said Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental analyst at Angel One. He highlighted that crude oil above $100 a barrel, a rupee testing 96 against the dollar, and stubbornly high US yields have pushed foreign investors to pull about Rs. 2.45 lakh crore out of Indian equities this year so far, more than in all of 2025.
What can push Sensex beyond 85,000 again?
Until at least one of these pressures eases, rallies are likely to meet selling, Khan said. He however added that a 12% correction has taken a fair amount of froth out of large-cap valuations. “If earnings hold up over the coming quarters, the risk-reward starts to favour patient buyers. In the near term, I expect the Sensex to trade in a broad 73,000–79,000 band. A fresh climb to 85,000 will need earnings upgrades and a softer crude-dollar mix, not just hope. Investors would do well to add quality large caps in tranches instead of trying to time the bottom,” he noted.
Going ahead, the key question is less about reclaiming a psychological level and more about whether the macro headwinds begin to ease and earnings regain momentum, said Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking. “Lower crude prices, stabilising yields and a revival in foreign flows could provide the trigger for a sustained recovery. However, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, and the market may continue to reward selectivity rather than broad-based risk-taking,” the analyst said.
Technical charts cannot rule out intermittent pullbacks in Sensex
Sensex continues to trade below its key moving averages, keeping the broader trend under pressure, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. He noted that the RSI remains below the 40 mark, indicating weak momentum, while a rising ADX points to strengthening trend intensity on the downside. The MACD line also remains below the signal line, further reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias.
From a slightly longer-term perspective, intermittent pullbacks cannot be ruled out, as seen over the last three trading sessions, according to Shah However, a sustained reversal would require an improvement in the broader macro environment. A meaningful decline in crude oil prices, easing bond yields, a depreciation in the dollar against the rupee, and a moderation in Middle East tensions would be key factors for sentiment to improve, the analyst said.
Are large caps set for a reversal?
Another important factor is the performance of heavyweight large caps, which collectively account for around 50–55% of Sensex, Shah highlighted. Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, TCS, Bharti Airtel and Larsen & Toubro have significantly underperformed, and a pickup in buying interest across these key constituents would be important for any meaningful and sustained reversal in the index, according to the technical analyst.
“Therefore, unless the macro backdrop improves and buying returns to these heavyweight counters, the Sensex may remain under pressure, with intermittent pullbacks likely along the way rather than a sustained reversal,” he said.
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