Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, September 14: Over 7%

Well, we’ve crossed into 7% territory. I’d try to say something reassuring about how this isn’t actually that different from where we just were and the leftmost digit simply makes it feel momentous. But when you look at the comparison to the last business day, or a week ago … nah, this is a pretty big move.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 7.09% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 11 basis points higher than Friday and 27 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage rates have been on the rise for some time now, but this decisive bump is thanks to last week’s inflation data. Those numbers have markets convinced the Federal Reserve is going to raise the federal funds rate at its meeting this week. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its influence extends to all corners of the economy, and mortgage interest rates are no exception.

For more on how these pieces fit together, keep reading below the chart.

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index, which measures the costs of wholesale goods and services, came in pretty much as predicted. But the components driving those overall numbers pointed to potential trouble ahead, with rising costs for fuel and energy pushing other prices higher.

The numbers in Friday’s Consumer Price Index, measuring (you guessed it!) the prices you and I pay for goods and services, were almost precisely aligned with predictions. Except for one, the month-over-month core CPI. “Core” means everything but food and fuel, which are especially volatile. Removing those allows for a clearer look at how inflation’s trending.

Month-over-month core CPI was a tenth of a percentage point above predictions. Those 10 basis points were enough to decisively swing markets’ assessments of this week’s Fed meeting’s outcome. Last week, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike were just under 60%. This morning, they’re topping 88%, according to CME FedWatch.

Warsh has made it extremely clear that he doesn’t want the Fed’s decisions to hang on any individual bit of data. But markets definitely seem to think Friday’s CPI is the crucial piece of evidence that will firmly make the case for a quarter percentage point rate hike.

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its changes to the federal funds rate essentially set the trend for borrowing costs. When it looks like the Federal Reserve is going to make a change, mortgage lenders tend to bake that into their rates. By the time the Fed’s decision is actually announced, mortgage rates have already moved.

Given how relatively last minute the consensus has developed around a rate hike, mortgage lenders are playing catch up. Even though mortgage rates have been rising since the Fed’s July meeting, it had been pretty gradual before now.

The one bit of good news is that if the Fed does indeed announce a rate hike on Wednesday, it probably won’t push mortgage rates any higher. But of course, the bad news is that’s because they’re already higher.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.59% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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