OPEC+ Maintains Oil Output Policy for October Amid Market Disruptions

OPEC+ Holds Oil Output Steady for October as Iran War Disrupts Supply

OPEC+ Output Policy and Market Impact

By Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler

Sept 6 (Reuters) – OPEC+ kept ​its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, it said in a statement, as the producer group needs to agree new quotas before deciding its next output steps.

Core OPEC+ Members and the Iran War

The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — comes as the Iran war continues to ​disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+’s influence over prices and market ​share. 

Production Adjustments and Ongoing Supply Cuts

In August, OPEC+ agreed its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Despite the agreed production increases, the group made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still produces far below its targets because of the war.

OPEC’s Limited Power Amid Conflict

OPEC’S POWER LIMITED BY IRAN CONFLICT

“OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.”

“The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027.”

Future Output Decisions and Quota Reviews

OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the ​21-country group until the ​end of 2026. Before the group decides how to unwind the cuts and return production to the market, it needs to review members’ oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas. 

This debate will likely happen later in 2026 and hence OPEC+ is likely to pause its output increases for the fourth quarter, sources earlier told Reuters. The statement on Sunday made no mention of policy beyond October.

Upcoming Meetings and Decision-Makers

Only the seven OPEC+ members who met on Sunday, plus the United Arab Emirates until it left OPEC in May, have been involved in monthly output decisions in recent years. 

The seven countries will hold their next meeting on October 4.

(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler, Editing by Tomasz Janowski and David Holmes)