Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, September 3: Hovering

Mortgage rates are idling this morning, essentially in the same spot they were yesterday. But while the day-over-day change is minimal, week-over-week is a different story.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.73% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is one basis point lower than yesterday but 22 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

That’s a huge jump from last Thursday. The U.S. and Iran resuming strikes over the weekend pushed mortgage rates upward, but rates were already moving higher before the latest rounds of overseas hostilities. To learn why — and what’s likely to affect rates next — keep reading below the chart.

Lately, it seems like mortgage rates have only had reasons to go up.

PCE came in more or less as predicted. No surprises, no real hit to mortgage rates. But that doesn’t mean PCE looked good. The Fed targets a 2% rate of inflation in the PCE index. For July, it was 3.7% — well north of the Fed’s target. (I should probably also mention we’ve been above 2% since March 2021.) So while PCE certainly could have been worse, it was hardly good news.

TBH it didn’t, but markets still came away with the belief that the Fed is finally going to act on inflation when it meets later this month. The CME Group’s odds of a September rate hike were roughly 36% a week ago; today they’re nearly 65%.

In non-inflation-related news, this week we’re getting fresh data about the job market. Yesterday, payroll firm ADP released its latest employment report, showing how August went for the private sector.

It ah, well … it didn’t go great. ADP found private employers added 38,000 jobs last month, the slowest rate of job creation since January. August also came in substantially below market expectations.

To say July’s jobs report missed expectations would be a pretty big understatement. Markets were eying an additional 83,000 to 97,500 jobs, depending on whose predictions you looked at. Instead, in July the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs. May and June’s totals were revised downward, too.

Markets are hoping that July was a one-off, with August projected to show an increase in the neighborhood of 50,000 jobs. But if August’s numbers show a slump, that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans. The Fed raises the funds rate to slow inflation (and again, right now markets are predicting a quarter of a percentage point hike later this month). But when the labor market’s struggling, the Fed props it up by lowering the funds rate.

If August’s jobs report is a miss, the odds of a rate hike from the Fed might fall, and that would take a little of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates. Just a little, though.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.23% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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