New US tariffs add pressure but Canada can weather the storm: RBC
The reverse, however, is far harder. Approximately 81% of Canada’s exports of the tariffed products were destined for the US in 2025, with plastics and articles showing a dependence as high as 92%.
“Trade diversification remains a more elusive goal for Canada,” the authors wrote, one “that will take considerable time to achieve.”
Plastics product manufacturing, which accounts for the largest nominal dollar value of at-risk exports, derived roughly half its value added and employment from US demand in 2024 — significant, but well below the nearly 80% dependence seen in auto and aluminum production, the report said.
For breweries, wineries and distilleries, the share tied to U.S. demand drops to around 15%, and the team concluded that “a higher domestic market share should provide better insulation” for those industries from volatile US trade policy.
The provincial picture is also shifting. Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia are expected to bear the largest share of higher effective tariff burdens, while energy-producing provinces remain largely shielded.
