October CPI Tests a Divided Fed Ahead of December
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes consumer price index (CPI) data for October at 8:30am ET today, 13:30 in London, with the Federal Reserve divided over whether it has tightened enough. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, then held on 28 October in a 10-2 vote; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a further hike.
The last print gave the dissenters their case. Headline CPI rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August, according to the BLS; core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. The FOMC’s 8-9 December meeting is its last scheduled decision of 2026.
A spokesperson for futures prop trading firm Tradeify said the release leaves policymakers with little room either way:
Tuesday’s CPI print lands with the Fed in an awkward spot. Policymakers raised rates in September and held in October, with two officials voting for another hike, and September’s headline inflation ran at 3.7% year on year. A hot number would put a December hike firmly back on the table, while a soft core reading would give the Fed room to wait.
Tradeify spokesperson
For futures traders, the spokesperson said, the risk sits in the first seconds after the release:
For short-term futures traders, the release is less about the direction of the next move than the speed of it. Index futures like the E-mini S&P 500 can reprice in seconds at 8:30, and spreads widen as liquidity thins. Sizing down into the print, or letting the first move settle before acting, is usually the difference between trading the reaction and getting caught in it.
Tradeify spokesperson
