SpaceX’s Adjusted Earnings Quadrupled in Q3. Is the Stock Heading Back to $200?

Last week, Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX -0.40%) released its latest quarterly numbers, which showed impressive year-over-year earnings growth. The business has gone from a loss a year ago to now being solidly in the black. On an adjusted-earnings basis, its bottom line also quadrupled.

There was a lot for investors to like about the company’s most recent earnings numbers, with SpaceX displaying strong growth while also generating some excellent margins. Could the results help the space stock get back to $200 before the end of 2026?

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX’s revenue more than doubled, and adjusted earnings quadrupled in Q3

In SpaceX’s most recent quarterly report, which was for the period ending Sept. 30, its revenue totaled $14.6 billion, which was more than double the $5.6 billion it reported in the same quarter last year. Its artificial intelligence segment, Super Intelligence (SI), drove the lion’s share of the growth, rising from $813 million to $7.6 billion.

The company’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) totaled $8.8 billion and were up significantly from $2.2 billion a year ago. Here again, the biggest improvement was in SI, where adjusted EBITDA was just under $5 billion, and in the prior-year period, it was in the red, with a loss of $428 million.

While there is a lot of noise around SpaceX’s financials, including in its adjusted earnings, the business posted a strong overall operating profit of $2.8 billion (versus a loss of $273 million a year ago). This can be a better indicator of overall profitability since it includes operating revenue and expenses and isn’t distorted with adjustments.

The business is doing well, but the stock remains highly valued

SpaceX is doing what investors have expected it to do — grow significantly. But as impressive as its growth may have been in Q3, that’s arguably already priced into the stock’s valuation. SpaceX, after all, has a market cap of $2 trillion. And at 85 times its estimated future profits (based on analyst expectations), the stock simply isn’t cheap. The market is also increasingly concerned about high capex spending by many tech companies, which may be keeping the stock from rising further.

The space stock hasn’t hit $200 since its early trading days in June, shortly after its IPO, when the hype around its business was at its peak. It may rise further this year, depending on investor sentiment, but I don’t expect it to reach the $200 mark based on its Q3 results alone, without a more significant catalyst.