Even higher Canadian mortgage payments ahead as bond yields climb, says thinktank
The C.D. Howe Institute’s October analysis flags the broader systemic dimension, saying, “for renewing households, that means higher payments, raising concerns about household finances and financial system stability.”
Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist at CMHC, says rising bond yields, inflation concerns, and trade-related uncertainty are making the outlook for interest rates and housing activity increasingly difficult to predict. https://t.co/mkip7w5Cba
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 6, 2026
What brokers are telling clients
Max Singh of TMG The Mortgage Group previously told Canadian Mortgage Professional: “When they contact us to ask questions about their mortgage renewal coming in September, October, November – before, I used to say, ‘It’s six of one and half a dozen of the other.’ But if their 1.99% is coming up for renewal in September, their renewal rate going forward is going up in a quicker fashion than their current pricing.”
Not all borrowers are struggling. Taz Zaide, a Toronto-based broker with 6ix Mortgage Group, told CMP that his renewal clients had largely managed the transition.
“All the clients that we’ve had who’ve been up for renewal have basically just been fine with qualification,” he said.
For brokers advising renewal clients, the C.D. Howe Institute’s analysis makes the central point plain: bond markets, not the overnight rate, are now the dominant force setting fixed mortgage costs, and they are moving in the wrong direction.
