What the BoC’s next decision means for the mortgage market
Bank of Canada rate hold keeps renewal pressure building
Among those facing increases at renewal, roughly 75 percent hold five-year fixed-rate mortgages. Payment increases are expected to average around 20 percent.
That gives brokers a concrete starting point in renewal conversations. Clients who locked in at historically low rates in 2021 and 2022 are renewing into a very different environment. Even with a Bank of Canada rate hold in place, payments are going up.
Mortgage delinquency balances rose 32 percent year-over-year nationally in the first quarter of 2026. They rose 52 percent in Ontario, according to Equifax Canada’s Q1 2026 Market Pulse report. Those numbers are already visible in broker pipelines.
Brokers advising on the fixed-versus-variable trade-off heading into autumn have limited room to manoeuvre. The hold removes one fear: an imminent rate increase. But it does not lower payments.
The forecaster split that changes broker advice
BMO, CIBC, RBC, and TD all forecast the policy rate at 2.25 percent through December 2026. National Bank and Scotiabank break from that view; both project the Bank will move to 2.50 percent in October and 2.75 percent before year-end.
