Canada’s trade surplus strengthens case for BoC rate hold
Nathan Janzen, Assistant Chief Economist at RBC Economics, said the data is tracking net trade adding approximately four percentage points to Q2 annualised GDP growth. That reinforces earlier monthly data already pointing to a meaningful rebound after two consecutive quarters of contraction.
RBC’s base forecast for Q2 GDP sits at 2.2%, with Janzen flagging roughly one percentage point of upside risk.
For mortgage brokers weighing whether to recommend fixed or variable rates in 2026, the stronger economic picture is a mixed signal. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive time at its July 15 decision, and a firming GDP print reinforces rather than relieves that posture.
Export volumes hit record despite tariff headwinds
Stripping out price movements and volatile gold shipments, Janzen’s analysis found export volumes reached a record high in Q2, rising at an annualised 23% from Q1 and 9.5% from a year earlier, when US tariffs imposed in spring 2025 had sharply depressed trade flows.
About 40% of that quarterly gain came from a recovery in auto sector exports following production disruptions earlier in the year.
