Canada’s population decline could disappear after StatCan revisions: CIBC

Canada’s reported population decline in 2025 could be revised away when Statistics Canada updates its estimates of non-permanent residents, according to a new CIBC report.

Statistics Canada currently estimates that Canada’s population fell by 234,597 between July 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, including a decline of 55,025 in the first quarter of this year.

But CIBC economist Benjamin Tal argues the estimates may have overstated the number of non-permanent residents who left Canada after their permits expired.

Many remained in the country legally after receiving extensions through other temporary-resident visas or forms of status granted by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Tal said, but were not fully captured in Statistics Canada’s estimates.

Statistics Canada has indicated that its next quarterly population release in September will include material revisions to its interim estimates for the past year. Tal expects revisions involving non-permanent residents to be larger than usual.

The extent of the revisions is not yet known. CIBC estimates they could add approximately 160,000 people to population growth in 2025 and about 210,000 in both 2026 and 2027 compared with current estimates and projections.

Under CIBC’s scenario, Canada’s population would have grown slightly in 2025 and would continue expanding in 2026, rather than recording the flat or negative growth anticipated in some forecasts.

While CIBC didn’t assess the housing-market implications, a larger population base than currently estimated could alter assumptions about underlying housing demand, particularly in the rental market.

Revisions could affect labour-market data

Tal said the revisions could also affect Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, which uses a 12-month moving average to incorporate changes in the non-permanent-resident population.

As a result, a substantial upward revision would enter the survey gradually, potentially creating a temporary bias in measures including the employment and unemployment rates, according to the report.

The revisions would not change the broader picture of sharply slower population growth. CIBC’s projections show the non-permanent-resident share of the population falling from 7.7% in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026.

CIBC estimates Canada’s population grew by 797,555 in 2024. Even after the anticipated revisions, it projects growth of just 7,564 in 2025, 56,000 in 2026 and 139,000 in 2027.

Statistics Canada is expected to release the revisions in September, although their eventual size remains unknown. CIBC said its projections assume only a partial reversal of the non-permanent residents it believes are missing from the current estimates.

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Last modified: July 28, 2026