Texas Democrats Sweep Statewide Offices, Putting Housing at a Crossroads

Texas enacted some of its most consequential housing supply reforms in years under Republican leadership, but Tuesday’s historic Democratic sweep in the Lone Star State has suddenly opened the door to changes advocates thought were politically impossible.

“The boundaries shifted entirely for the possibilities for low-income households and Texans seeking affordability,” Texas Housers, a nonprofit housing advocacy organization, tells Realtor.com®. “What was realistic 24 hours ago is dramatically different from what is realistic today.”

Among those possibilities are greater state investment in affordable housing, stronger renter protections, and more funding to rebuild homes damaged by natural disasters—priorities the organization hopes the incoming administration will advance.

But the state’s homebuilding industry is looking to build on an agenda it has spent years advancing with officials from both parties.

“It’s neither D nor R. It’s H for housing,” Scott Norman, CEO of the Texas Association of Builders, tells Realtor.com.

After an election shaped by pocketbook concerns, Texas’ new guard will doubtless be judged on whether it can solve for Norman’s ‘H’—turning the momentum of the nation’s most active homebuilding market into homes more Texans can afford.

Texas’ housing reforms were already gaining momentum

Texas’ Republican-led Legislature had already begun dismantling barriers to housing construction before Tuesday’s election.

Senate Bill 840, for example, allows developers to convert certain commercial properties into apartments without extensive rezoning.

Since taking effect in September 2025, the law has enabled plans for at least 8,400 apartments, according to a July analysis by the Texas Tribune citing a coalition of housing reform advocates. That’s equivalent to roughly one-fifth of the multifamily units permitted statewide during the period.

That’s an especially notable share given that the Lone Star State leads the nation in homebuilding, issuing more permits than any other state and accounting for 14.6% of building permits issued nationwide, according to the latest Affordability and Homebuilding Report Cards from Realtor.com.

But to Norman’s point, it was a bipartisan push—one that Democratic Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa helped advance during her time in the state Legislature. As a member of the House Land & Resource Management Committee, she voted in favor of moving SB 840 forward.

It’s something Norman hasn’t forgotten, saying she was “supportive of stuff we were pushing” during the previous legislative session. “I’m sure and I know she’ll take that experience to the governor’s mansion.”

Tray Bates, vice president of governmental affairs at Texas Realtors, also sees room for cooperation.

“The core problem is supply,” Bates tells Realtor.com. “Texas is adding people faster than it’s adding homes people can afford.”

Both organizations want to continue easing restrictions on residential development, while Norman also sees an opportunity to address the shortage of skilled construction workers through expanded workforce training.

“The more folks we can get in the business, that’ll drive down those labor costs,” he says.

Where Democrats could take housing policy further

But Texas’ homebuilding boom has done far less to close the gap for its lowest-income renters.

The state faces a shortage of 709,000 affordable and available rentals for extremely low-income households, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

Texas Housers argues that insufficient state investment has contributed to that shortfall.

“Texas has relied almost entirely on federal dollars and tax credits to create and preserve affordable housing in our communities,” the organization says. “Current resources are not enough to address the need for safe, decent, and affordable housing.”

Indeed, just $10.1 million in state funding was allocated to the Housing Trust Fund for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. By contrast, the state awarded more than $114 million in federal housing tax credits to help finance affordable rental units in 2026 alone.

The programs serve different purposes, to be sure, but the figures illustrate how heavily Texas relies on federal incentives to finance affordable rental development.

Land Commissioner-elect Ben Flores sees another opportunity in the approximately 13 million acres managed by the General Land Office.

“We [sic] hold parcels near growing cities that are sitting idle,” Flores tells Realtor.com. “My team will inventory those parcels and identify which ones could support housing for teachers, nurses, first responders, and working families through long-term leases that keep the land in public hands and still earn revenue for the Permanent School Fund.

“Housing and school funding don’t have to compete,” he adds. “Done right, they support each other.”

Flores intends to prioritize the Houston region and Rio Grande Valley, where he says rising housing costs have compounded the challenges facing families recovering from floods.

He’s also promising to address delays in distributing disaster recovery aid—an issue Texas Housers says has left some Hurricane Harvey survivors waiting years to rebuild.

“When the state relies solely on federal dollars run through slow, unaccountable systems, the families with the least end up waiting the longest,” the organization says.

Flores says he’ll tackle this head-on in his first 90 days by conducting an agency audit, with public progress reports every 30 days and measurable targets for distributing assistance.

“We will review every open recovery program, find out where funds are stuck and why, and work to get those dollars back to hurricane survivors,” Flores says. “Allocation decisions will be made based on need and damage, not politics, and we’ll publish where the money is going so Texans can see it for themselves.”

Renters could also see a different approach under the incoming administration.

“Basic tenant protections are also urgently needed,” Texas Housers says, calling for eviction record sealing and greater transparency around rental fees among its legislative priorities.

Lt. Gov.-elect Vikki Goodwin has proposed property tax incentives for landlords who maintain affordable rents, while Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson has promised a 30-day review of consumer protection and competition laws, specifically identifying algorithmic rent-setting as an enforcement concern.

Could the election change what drives Texas’ housing market?

Then there are the forces outside what any single public office can control—forces that Norman argues will be the greater determinants of Texas’ housing future.

“Two things that drive housing growth are population growth and job growth,” he says.

And there’s been no shortage of that in Texas. The state has added more than 2.6 million residents since 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures.

When asked about fears that growth could stall or reverse, Norman responds with enthusiastic optimism that the state’s economic appeal will continue attracting households and supporting construction.

“I’m bullish on Texas,” he says.

But some real estate professionals outside the state are watching for signs that the political shift could change where affluent residents choose to live.

Miltiadis Kastanis, a Miami Beach luxury real estate agent with Compass, says inquiries from Texas buyers were rising before the election.

“We have noticed an increase in inquiries from the Texan market,” he says.

Kastanis believes the latest political shifts could accelerate that interest, particularly among wealthy Texans concerned about future changes to the state’s tax environment.

“You will see Texans start pre-planning a move to the Florida market,” he says, but he cautions against expecting a mass exodus or COVID-19 pandemic-era bidding wars.

Bates is similarly skeptical that one election will significantly alter migration patterns.

“It’s far too early to predict migration based on one election,” he says. “Domestic migration to Texas was already slowing before Tuesday, and housing costs are a major factor.”

And at a crossroads for Texas housing policy, that could become a North Star for housing advocates, industry leaders, and the incoming administration alike.

“Maybe the policy solutions may look a little different based on who’s in charge,” Norman says, but the commitment to a more affordable Texas remains the same.

“There’s a lot we can get done with the new folks coming in,” he says.