Statistics Canada report maps Canada’s economic recovery amid trade uncertainty
Goods exports rose 4.9 per cent in Q2, led by passenger vehicles and light trucks following a prolonged period of suppressed auto production. Energy products, industrial machinery, and consumer goods also contributed. On a year-over-year basis, total goods and services exports were 6.7 per cent above levels seen before the trade conflict escalated, according to Statistics Canada (catalogue 36-10-0104-01).
As Wealth Professional has reported, Canada’s economic trajectory heading into 2026 remained highly uncertain, making the second-quarter rebound a meaningful, if qualified, data point.
Non-residential business investment in machinery and equipment rose 5.2 per cent in Q2, a third consecutive quarterly gain. Combined non-residential structures and machinery investment was 1.0 per cent above Q2 2025 levels. Business labour productivity posted its strongest quarterly increase since the pandemic shutdowns in early 2020, and real GDP per capita recorded its largest advance since Q2 2022.
The report provides one of the clearest federal pictures yet of how Canada’s trade mix has shifted since tariffs escalated. While merchandise exports to the United States rebounded through the first half of 2026 – rising steadily from February to June before finishing roughly 5.0 per cent below the record set in January 2025 – growth in non-U.S. trade flows was substantially stronger.
Total merchandise exports to countries other than the United States in the first half of 2026 were 19.4 per cent higher than in the second half of 2025, according to Statistics Canada (table 12-10-0011-01).
