SoFi’s Noto offers positive forecast despite ‘haters’
- Key insight: SoFi increased its full-year outlook for 2026 after reporting a new record for net revenue even as it faced a different interest rate environment than initially expected.
- Expert quote: “We’ve methodically delivered results that directly refute many of the prognostications of the haters.” —SoFi CEO Anthony Noto
SoFi announced Tuesday that it’s raising its full-year revenue guidance for 2026, despite widespread uncertainty about interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday.
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“Our exceptional growth year-to-date and high confidence and visibility on future performance demonstrate that our business model is resilient to rate volatility,” SoFi Chief Financial Officer Chris Lapointe said in the company’s earnings call on Tuesday. “That’s because of our model and our consistent focus on the three drivers that create the most long-term value for shareholders: delivering more members, more products per member and higher revenue per product. Q3 demonstrated strength on all three.”
SoFi, an online lender-turned-bank that recently broke into the
“We are impressed by SoFi’s ability to post accelerating revenue growth and a wider net interest margin despite higher rates,” a research note from William Blair read. “This increases our confidence in above-average through-the-cycle organic revenue, EBITDA, and ROTCE expansion, regardless of rates.”
Anthony Noto, CEO of SoFi, said on the earnings call that the company had also increased its customer count by 35% year-over-year to 17.1 million, with 1.2 million of those added this quarter.
“These are strong results in any environment, but they’re even more remarkable when considering how 2026 has turned out,” Noto said. “Nine months into the year, the environment looks different than what we expected in January.”
The bank’s original 2026 guidance had estimated that the Federal Reserve would announce two rate cuts. Instead, the central bank has announced one rate hike so far and is anticipated to either hold rates steady or increase them again before the end of the year.
“Today, we are positioned for two more rate hikes this year,” Noto said. “The good news is [that] we are executing as well as we ever have. In fact, I now have as much confidence in our ability to drive durable growth in a high-rate environment as I do in a low-rate environment.”
The company increased its full-year guidance for all of its major earnings metrics, in a departure from its approach to
“Leading our team is a privilege, especially this year as we’ve methodically delivered results that directly refute many of the prognostications of the haters,” Noto said.
Truist analysts said in a research note that the “vast majority” of SoFi’s strong earnings report was due to rapid growth in personal loan originations.
“The better personal loan originations drove the top-line beat via higher origination fees and a sequential improvement in their net interest margin,” the note read. “Management sounded constructive on [fourth quarter] originations, but the key question is how long can this pace of market share gains persist. We estimate that SoFi now has greater than 25% market share of personal loan originations in the U.S. SoFi has a great go-to-market motion, and an improving brand awareness, but the personal loans market may be big enough now that the big banks and credit card issuers are starting to push back.”
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The company also launched its own tokenized deposit product, called SoFi Earn, last week ahead of its earnings release. The tokenized deposit, which is FDIC-insured and offers a 4.4% annual percentage yield, allows SoFi customers to create digital “tokens” of their money to convert into
“We’re the only national bank that has issued a payment stablecoin and tokenized deposits,” Noto said on the earnings call.
The company is aiming to grow to 50 million members by 2030, he said.
“That’s going to require great technology scaling and great innovation,” Noto said. “As we start to enter an entirely new era of two technology super-cycles, with AI and blockchain, we’re capturing faster than any other fintech in the United States, and quite frankly, faster than any large bank.”
