Holiday Season Is the Best Time For Homebuyers to Score a Deal in These 7 U.S. Metros
- While spring and early summer are typically peak seasons for house hunting, patience can pay off for buyers in certain parts of the country willing to shop during the end-of-year holidays.
- Early November is typically the best time of the year for house hunters to score a bargain in Milwaukee, Riverside and Tampa, according to a Redfin and Home Economics analysis.
- In Detroit and three more Florida metros, mid-December is the dealmaking sweet spot for buyers.
Early November is the best time for homebuyers to score a bargain in three U.S. metro areas: Milwaukee, Riverside, CA and Tampa, FL.
In Detroit and three Florida metros–Fort Lauderdale, Miami and West Palm Beach–house hunters may benefit from holding out a little longer. Mid-December is typically the best time of year to get a deal in those places.
| U.S. Metros Where the Best Time For Homebuyers to Get a Deal Is November or December | |
| Early November | Mid December |
| Milwaukee, WI | Detroit, MI |
| Riverside, CA | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| Tampa, FL | Miami, FL |
| West Palm Beach, FL | |
| Our analysis found that early November is the best time for homebuyers to get a deal in 3 U.S. metros, and that mid December is the best time in 4 others. | |
This is according to a Home Economics and Redfin analysis of housing market data; the analysis was originally completed in April. The analysis identifies the time of year when discounts off a home’s original asking price–through price drops and/or negotiations between buyer and seller–typically approach their seasonal peak.
Nationwide, discounts tend to peak in early fall before plateauing or shrinking as winter approaches. But housing is local, and in these seven metros, peak discounts typically arrive later. Homebuying slows as the holidays approach, leaving sellers with fewer potential buyers–giving the buyers who remain more room to negotiate. And some late-year listings have been sitting for months, making sellers more motivated to strike a deal before the end of the year.
“There’s a tradeoff to shopping for a home late in the year: Buyers may have fewer fresh listings to choose from, but they also face less competition, and many sellers are ready to make a deal,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “A seller who has been waiting months for an offer may be more willing to negotiate on price or other costs than they were in the spring. Buyers shouldn’t purchase a home just because the calendar says it’s a good time for deals, but those who find the right home may have room to negotiate.”
Florida Buyers Have More Bargaining Power Before the Snowbirds Arrive
In Florida, the best deals for buyers typically arrive in November or December, partly due to weather. South Florida’s biggest wave of buyers–retirees and seasonal residents–often show up after the new year, when the weather is sunny and comfortable in Florida but cold in the Northeast.
“Local buyers have a good shot at getting a deal in November, mainly because it’s just before the snowbirds arrive,” said Todd Edwards, a Redfin Premier agent in Tampa. “House hunters have a window of opportunity to negotiate on listings that have been lingering on the market since summer: Sellers want to close a deal before the new year, and there’s often not much competition from out-of-towners yet.”
Hurricane season, which runs through early fall, also keeps some house hunters away and leaves lingering listings ripe for discounts once it passes. Additionally, Florida’s high concentration of luxury homes tend to sell below asking price, especially late in the year when sellers are eager to get those properties off their books.
Winter Slowdown Brings Bargains to Milwaukee and Detroit
The story is a bit different in Milwaukee and Detroit. Those northern metros have a fairly short selling season: Cold-weather markets compress the window for touring and closing on homes; sellers keep at it later into fall, trying to close a deal before the depth of winter hits and buyers hibernate.
That delays the usual seasonal slowdown until November in Milwaukee and December in Detroit, later than in most of the country.
Seasonal Advantage May Be Bigger Than Usual This Winter
The November and December discount windows in Milwaukee, Riverside, Detroit and much of Florida aren’t a one-time event; they show up as a recurring pattern each year, regardless of whether the broader market favors buyers or sellers.
But the seasonal advantage could be particularly useful to buyers this year. The U.S. housing market is already firmly tilted toward buyers, with 63% more sellers than buyers—the biggest imbalance in Redfin records dating back to 2013. A jump in listings coupled with sluggish homebuying demand has given house hunters in many parts of the country more options and more negotiating power. Miami is one of the strongest buyer’s markets in the nation, with more than twice as many sellers as buyers. Tampa, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Riverside and Detroit are also buyer’s markets.
Milwaukee is one of just five seller’s markets in the country. With more buyers than sellers in Milwaukee, deals aren’t commonplace–so buyers there may want to pay extra attention to seasonal patterns.
Homebuyers Should Consider Other Factors, Too
The best time to buy a home is more complex than the week when buyers are most likely to score a discount.
There’s typically a tradeoff between selection and savings. New listings generally peak months before the best deals arrive. For instance, Milwaukee typically has the most new listings in mid-May and the most fresh inventory in mid-July,then its best deals arrive in early November. Detroit’s new listings typically peak in early August and fresh inventory in early September, months before its mid-December dealmaking sweet spot.
That means buyers who wait until November or December may have fewer homes to choose from. But those who prioritize price—and are flexible about their timing—may find sellers more receptive to negotiations. Ultimately, buyers should balance price, selection and their own circumstances.
| Best Time to Buy a Home, Metro-Level Summary
Please note that this table includes 3 key moments for buyers; it’s important for buyers to balance what’s most important for them–choice or price |
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| Most New Listings | Most Fresh Inventory | Best Deals | |
| Anaheim, CA | Mid May | Late June | Late August |
| Atlanta, GA | Mid May | Mid July | Early September |
| Austin, TX | Mid May | Early July | Late August |
| Baltimore, MD | Early May | Early June | Mid September |
| Boston, MA | Mid May | Mid July | Early October |
| Chicago, IL | Mid May | Early June | Early October |
| Cincinnati, OH | Mid May | Mid July | Mid October |
| Cleveland, OH | Mid May | Mid July | Late October |
| Columbus, OH | Late June | Mid July | Mid October |
| Dallas, TX | Late June | Early August | Mid September |
| Denver, CO | Mid May | Mid July | Early September |
| Detroit, MI | Early August | Early September | Mid December |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | Early February | Late March | Mid December |
| Fort Worth, TX | Late June | Mid August | Mid September |
| Houston, TX | Late May | Mid July | Late September |
| Indianapolis, IN | Mid May | Mid July | Mid October |
| Jacksonville, FL | Early May | Mid May | Mid September |
| Las Vegas, NV | Late May | Mid June | Late September |
| Los Angeles, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Mid September |
| Miami, FL | Early February | Late March | Mid December |
| Milwaukee, WI | Mid May | Mid July | Early November |
| Minneapolis, MN | Mid May | Mid July | Early October |
| Montgomery County, PA | Mid May | Early June | Mid October |
| Nashville, TN | Mid May | Mid July | Mid September |
| Nassau County, NY | Mid May | Late June | Late August |
| New Brunswick, NJ | Mid May | Early June | Early October |
| New York, NY | Mid May | Early June | Mid August |
| Newark, NJ | Mid May | Early June | Late August |
| Oakland, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Late August |
| Orlando, FL | Early May | Mid July | Early October |
| Philadelphia, PA | Mid May | Early June | Mid October |
| Phoenix, AZ | Late March | Early April | Late October |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Mid May | Early July | Mid October |
| Portland, OR | Mid May | Mid July | Late August |
| Providence, RI | Mid May | Late June | Mid October |
| Riverside, CA | Mid May | Mid June | Early November |
| Sacramento, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Late August |
| San Antonio, TX | Late May | Mid July | Mid September |
| San Diego, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Mid September |
| San Francisco, CA | Late September | Late October | Late September |
| San Jose, CA | Mid May | Early June | Late August |
| Seattle, WA | Mid May | Mid July | Early September |
| Tampa, FL | Late March | Early April | Early November |
| Virginia Beach, VA | Early May | Mid June | Mid October |
| Warren, MI | Mid May | Late August | Late October |
| Washington, DC | Early May | Early June | Late September |
| West Palm Beach, FL | Early February | Late March | Mid December |
Methodology
To identify the best time to buy, this Home Economics and Redfin analysis focuses on the seasonal indexes for three metrics: new listings, fresh inventory, and the average discount.
- Most new listings: the week when the flow of new listings is greatest relative to the annual average.
- Most fresh inventory: the week the stock of active listings with 60 days or less on market is greatest relative to the annual average.
- Best deals: To identify the period with the “best deals” we identify the moment when the average discount (original list price divided by final sale price) reaches an “inflection point,” meaning it slows or shrinks heading into late fall or winter. We characterize this moment as reflecting the best deals since buyers typically have ample inventory to choose from while discounts approach a local maximum. To identify these moments, we first fit a smoothed curve to the average discount seasonal index for each region to remove week-to-week noise. Starting from the spring trough—the week when homes sell closest to (or above) their list price—we find the week of maximum slope, representing the period of fastest improvement in the average discount. We then identify the first subsequent week where the slope falls below 10% of that maximum, marking the point where average discounts have largely plateaued. For metros where the slope never drops below this threshold (i.e., discounts continue to grow aggressively through year-end), we use the week of the overall peak discount instead.
