‘I don’t see rates going up anytime soon’: CMHC chief economist
“He’s very conscious about that, and his choice is moving on something for optics to say ‘We’re doing something,’ and having a detrimental impact on the economy, or just saying, ‘Well, it’s hard, but we can’t do anything about it.’”
Choppy economy could keep BoC on hold, says Laberge
The Bank is scheduled to meet at the end of this month (October 28), with speculation about a possible hike either this time around or in December intensifying amid persistent inflation and a more aggressive Federal Reserve south of the border, which increased rates in its last decision.
But the Canadian economy’s sluggish performance has continued. In September, the jobs market posted its worst month of the year, with the economy losing 68,300 jobs and the unemployment rate jumping to 6.5%.
Laberge suggested the shaky economy would likely keep rate hikes on ice, although he said mortgage market watchers should pencil in sooner-than-expected 2027 increases.
“The economy is not extremely [strong] right now. We saw the labour market numbers,” he said. “So my hunch right now is: not before 2027. Our previous forecast was mid-2027. We may bring that forward a little, so maybe end of Q1, early Q2 2027, but I don’t see anything this year.”
