Q3 M&A Deal Volume Cools, But Consolidators Keep Driving Deals
The third-quarter tallies of wealth management deals are coming in a bit tepid, but the overall pace of acquisitions still may run hot by the end of the year, according to analysis from four industry trackers.
According to a report by DeVoe & Company, the investment bank’s early indicators from September have held true: the third-quarter deal market is down compared to last year, with 77 transactions representing a 17% drop in volume.
DeVoe attributed the decline to market volatility, which the investment bank said crimped RIA dealmaking among smaller firms whose founders and leaders are closer to clients.
“Client calls and portfolio reviews multiply, concern about the firm’s own performance rises, and leadership attention shifts away from strategic initiatives,” DeVoe analysts wrote. “Time spent reassuring clients is time not spent on M&A.”
DeVoe tracks sales of independent RIAs with at least $100 million in assets under management.
Investment bank Piper Sandler, which also considers RIA sales of at least $100 million, recorded a slightly higher tally for the quarter at 89 transactions in data pulled for Wealth Management. That was down from the 93 deals the Minneapolis-based bank tracked in the same period in 2025.
The bankers, however, don’t see the cooler third-quarter as an indicator of a slower deal market.
“We are not seeing a slowdown in deal activity,” said Cameron Hoerner, a managing director in the financial services group at Piper Sandler, noting the torrid pace of dealmaking dating back to the start of 2025. “There remains a wide universe of acquisitive platforms looking to grow inorganically, while sellers continue to come to market looking for the broader resources that these larger platforms can bring.”
Despite the 17% drop in the third quarter, DeVoe shared a similar view of the deal market going forward. In their report, the analysts noted that professionally run consolidators and large RIAs are likely to keep the market humming.
“The third-quarter slowdown has put a record year in doubt, but it has not taken one off the table,” DeVoe’s team wrote.
To hit another annual record by its count, DeVoe would need to see 79 more deals in the fourth quarter for a total of 323, lower than the 81 transactions the firm counted in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2024.
Record Reached
RIA data and insights provider Fintrx also found a slight decline in the third quarter, to 60 deals in 2026, down from 62 in 2025. That firm’s count is lower because it excludes deals done by private equity firms, banks and insurers.
When measured by that stricter definition, however, Fintrx has already seen a record for 2026, tallying 225 transactions this year compared to 193 for all of 2025.
Much of that has been driven by the largest dealmakers, which accounted for about 65% of total AUM acquired in the third quarter, according to the Boston-based firm.
“That concentration is consistent with the broader 2026 pattern: a small number of transformative platform acquisitions sitting atop a large base of sub-$1B activity,” Fintrx analysts wrote.The investment banking team at Marshberry, which also released an M&A report Thursday, tallies deals by the period in which they occurred, rather than when they were announced. Since deals can be added into quarters retroactively, the firm instead keeps a year-to-date count to try to gauge sentiment. By that measure, the bankers see 2026 through September coming in stronger than last year, at 294 deals, compared with 281 in 2025.
Director John Orsini attributed the robust pace to a combination of private capital flooding into the space along with the “highly professionalized” nature of buyers at this stage of the RIA market.
“All the major acquirers are busier than ever,” Orsini said. “Even if you sign an LOI [letter of intent] now, you’re not closing this year—people are maxed out and hitting their numbers and growing.”
According to Woodmere, Ohio-based Marshberry’s forecasting, the large buyers will likely drive yet another record year in 2026.
“While it is too early to tell for certain, MarshBerry expects full year 2026 deal count to potentially break the 400-deal threshold,” Managing Director Kim Kovalski wrote in the report.
Rolling It Up
Miami-based DeVoe also called out the large consolidators as a key driver of dealmaking.
When considering the group of firms whose “business model is built around acquiring RIAs,” DeVoe said that cohort is within reach of a new record in 2026 at 159 deals. They have already booked 129 deals year-to-date, or 53% of the total market.
Thanks, in part, to external funding, those consolidators are able to staff corporate development and integration teams that can execute “repeatable diligence processes and pursue sellers across a wider range of sizes,” according to the analysts.
There is, the analysts warned, another headwind to monitor for at least some in the deal market: rising interest rates.
The Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday showed inflation running hot, which many analysts believe may push the Fed to raise interest rates for a second time this year.
“Rising rates could test … momentum, particularly for acquirers that rely most heavily on debt,” DeVoe wrote. “Higher borrowing costs reduce the return on a transaction unless a buyer pays less, commits more equity or finds stronger growth in the firm it acquires. A single increase is unlikely to change an established acquisition program, but sustained increases would widen the gap between buyers.”
