Housing Notes: Hamptons, North Fork & LI’s Supply Blues

Takeaways

• Hamptons
  • Listing inventory fell annually for the third straight quarter, sharply below the third-quarter decade average
  • Median sales price slipped for the first time in six months, reflecting a shift in the mix
  • Number of sales declined annually for the fourth consecutive quarter, restrained by falling supply
  • The market share of sales for sales above the $5 million threshold was the lowest in five quarters
  • The 1M–5M “middle” market was where all the year-over-year sales growth occurred
  • Luxury listing inventory, which began at $6,625,000, was essentially flat year over year
• North Fork
  • Median sales price surged annually to a record high, with the average rising to the second-highest on record
  • Listing inventory edged higher from the prior year but remained sharply below the third-quarter decade average
  • Sales declined annually for the third time, restrained by low inventory
  • Six of 10 sales closed above $1 million, the highest market share on record
• Long Island
  • Median and average sales prices rose to new highs, continuing to outpace inflation
  • Sales slipped year over year despite modest gain in listing inventory
  • Listing discount reflected a price premium across the market
  • Bidding wars returned above the 50% threshold, consistent with constrained sales and record prices.
  • Luxury prices surged annually at nearly double the rate of the overall market

Author’s Note

After 19 years of reporting on the Hamptons & North Fork housing markets through a national brokerage firm, I’ve partnered with the Hamptons Real Estate Association (HREA) to continue the series with quarterly releases. For now, I’m also punching out Long Island results because it dovetails well with the East End market story (and it’s fun).

Hamptons

Overall, Hamptons housing prices declined, largely because the mix shifted toward smaller properties. Market distortion from limited inventory continues to drive the market’s behavior. The median sales price declined 6.3 percent annually to $1.875 million after 6 straight quarters of setting first-, second-, or third-highest levels in history. One might think falling inventory would always drive prices higher, but because the middle of the market surged and overpowered the top of the market ($5 million or higher), overall prices slipped. It’s clearly not a declining market. At the same time, sales have fallen annually for four straight quarters, as listing inventory has declined year over year in four of the past five quarters. The actual sales gains are being seen in the “Hampton’s middle,” my nickname for the $1 million to $5 million price range, which accounted for 65.5 percent of all sales, the third-highest share for this submarket on record.

North Fork

The North Fork saw record-high prices in contrast to its South Fork neighbor. The median sales price surged 19.6 percent annually to $1,249,500, the highest on record. The average sales price was $1,625,795, the second-highest on record and 19.7 percent above last year. Listing inventory was essentially stable, rising a nominal 1.4 percent year over year. But supply remained weak, with the 144-listing total 42.4 percent below the third-quarter decade average of 250. Six out of 10 sales were above the $1 million threshold, the highest market share on record.

Long Island

Median sales price rose 4.3 percent to $782,000, the highest on record, for the eighth straight quarter, despite rising mortgage rates. Listing inventory remains chronically low at 5,053, even though it rose by 3.4 percent annually. The third-quarter decade inventory average was 7,864, meaning the current supply of 5,053 is 35.8 percent below the long-term average, driving prices to record levels.

Final Thoughts

Severe inventory shortages continue to constrain sales levels across Long Island and the East End, keeping supply well below long-term averages. In the Hamptons, median sales prices softened because the product mix shifted, driven by surging volume in the middle market and fewer sales at the top end, rather than broad-based price declines. Meanwhile, the North Fork notched record-high pricing with most transactions closing in the seven-figure tier, while mainland Long Island posted another consecutive record-high median, listing premiums and widespread bidding wars.

The Actual Final Thought – Another home marketing angle (NSFW).