Mutual fund SIP returns: India averaged 8.4% over rolling 5-year periods; how did it compare with global markets?
Systematic investment plans (SIPs) are often associated with disciplined investing and rupee-cost averaging. But does investing a fixed amount every month necessarily lead to good returns, regardless of the market?
An analysis shared by Niranjan Avasthi, President at Edelweiss Asset Management, on X provides a global comparison of SIP returns.
A comparison of 120 rolling five-year monthly SIPs across 10 global markets over the past 10 years, from October 2016 to September 2026, shows that the same SIP discipline has produced very different outcomes depending on the market. All returns in the analysis are measured in US dollars.
The Nasdaq-100 delivered the highest average XIRR at 19.1%, followed by the S&P 500 at 13.7%. India delivered an average XIRR of 8.4%, with 98% of the rolling five-year SIP outcomes ending in positive returns.
What does a 10-year period and rolling 5-year SIP return actually mean?
The 10 years refer to the overall period from October 2016 to September 2026, during which the 120 rolling five-year SIP outcomes were calculated. In other words, 120 different five-year windows, moving month by month across a 10-year period, were analysed.
For example, one SIP could be evaluated over January 2016–December 2020, the next over February 2016–January 2021, and so on. In this analysis, 120 such five-year monthly SIP periods were examined for each market.
This is useful for investors because one five-year period can be unusually strong or weak. Rolling returns provide a broader picture of how consistently an SIP has performed.
Did India deliver consistent SIP outcomes?
Of the 120 rolling five-year SIP outcomes, 87% generated annualised returns between 6% and 12%, while 7% were between 0% and 6%. Only 2% were negative, meaning 98% of the outcomes were positive.
Avasthi highlighted this in his post, “India was very consistent. With 8.4% average returns (in dollar terms), 98% of outcomes were positive, and 87% fell between 6% and 12%.”
The US Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 did not record a single negative five-year outcome.
“Several markets were quite volatile. Brazil, South Korea, China and Hong Kong each had worst outcomes of -6% to -8%, and roughly a third of their SIPs ended in negative.”
For investors, this means that although Indian SIPs did not deliver the highest returns in the comparison, the outcomes were clustered relatively closely around the 6%-12% range rather than being spread widely between large gains and losses.
What were the average, best and worst SIP returns globally?
The US markets were clear leaders. The Nasdaq-100 had an average XIRR of 19.1%, with outcomes ranging from 6.7% to 31.1%.
India’s 8.4% average was higher than France’s 7.1% and every other non-US market in the comparison. India’s best five-year rolling SIP outcome was 13%, while its worst was -0.9%.
Brazil averaged 4.6%, Germany 4.1%, South Korea 3.0%, China A-shares 2.9%, Hong Kong 2.2%, and South Africa 2%.
Avasthi summed up the difference: “Same discipline and the same monthly habit gave very different outcomes.”
Does an SIP guarantee positive returns?
No. An SIP is a method of investing regularly in mutual funds, not a guarantee of returns. Regular investing can spread purchases across different market levels and reduce the risk of putting the entire amount into the market at an unfavourable time.
But it cannot protect investors from a market that remains weak or stagnant for a prolonged period.
As Avasthi put it, “The lesson is that an SIP is a discipline, not a guarantee.” He added, “Rupee-cost averaging can’t rescue a market that goes nowhere for 5 years. Amidst all this, India has delivered reasonably good returns.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
About the Author
Sheetal Goel is a Content Producer at Livemint, where she covers corporate developments, personal finance, business trends, markets, and SEBI-related updates. She focuses on simplifying complex financial concepts and presenting them in a clear, reader-friendly manner, thereby helping audiences better understand investment trends, personal finance, and market developments. Her writing focuses on making finance more accessible to everyday readers while maintaining clarity, accuracy, and relevance.
She holds a degree in Economics (Hons.) along with an MBA in Finance, which has helped her develop a strong foundation in financial analysis, market understanding, and business reporting. Before joining journalism, she worked with finance and broking firms, where she closely followed market developments, investment strategies, and evolving industry trends. This practical exposure strengthened her understanding of financial markets. She has also written content across multiple formats and platforms, including YouTube, LinkedIn, and Instagram.
Over time, she has developed expertise in covering market-linked stories, investor-focused topics, and regulatory updates in a simplified yet informative style. She also enjoys reading and listening to Hindi poetry, reflecting her appreciation for literature and creative expression beyond the world of markets and numbers.
