Don’t expect the current mortgage rate volatility to end anytime soon
For ab Iorwerth, however, there’s no clear case yet for a series of rate increases by Canada’s central bank. “There’s a lot of demand for capital – by the government, by the AI industry, and so forth – and I think this is pushing up long-term interest rates,” he said. “But it’s also making life very difficult to forecast because we don’t know what will happen on the trade front.
“And I think it makes the life of the Bank of Canada very difficult: inflation not as bad as in the US, but it’s still maybe slightly above target. But I’m not sure this is the right moment to be raising interest rates in Canada with all of the uncertainty that we’re facing.”
Delinquencies, arrears remain on the radar amid trade woes
Mortgage delinquencies and arrears have been a huge talking point in the industry in 2025 and 2026, mainly because of the glut of mortgages renewing at higher rates compared with three or five years previously.
Could the fresh bout of trade chaos and political uncertainty spur a further uptick in delinquencies as rates move higher?
The outlook for delinquencies and arrears has been largely regional, with certain parts of the country faring worse than others. That’s likely to persist in the months ahead, according to ab Iorwerth, although he still doesn’t see a wider market meltdown in the cards anytime soon.
