Mortgage fraud eases, but Ontario leads provincial rates: Equifax
Canada’s mortgage application fraud rate declined in the second quarter of 2026, but Ontario continued to stand out as Equifax warned lenders to account for regional differences in fraud risk and financial stress.
The national mortgage application fraud rate fell to 0.20%, with Ontario recording the highest provincial rate at 0.28%, followed by Alberta at 0.19%.
Equifax discussed the findings during its H1 2026 Fraud Trends & Economic Insights webinar on Wednesday.
Equifax said higher borrowing costs at renewal, living expenses and debt payments can increase the incentive for consumers to misrepresent income, employment or assets when applying for credit.
Renewal pressures can increase fraud incentives
Canada’s outstanding mortgage balances reached $1.97 trillion in Q2 2026, up 4.0% from a year earlier. The share of mortgage balances at least 90 days past due reached 0.30%, with Equifax highlighting financial pressures in Ontario and B.C.
The bureau linked some of those pressures to borrowers renewing mortgages taken out at historically low rates. Higher payments leave these households with less income available for other expenses.
“This is driving a material reduction in available income, leading to that financial stress we talked about and the incentive to go ahead and embellish income or employment,” said Carl Davies, head of fraud, identity and compliance at Equifax Canada.
While the overall consumer application fraud rate rose 5% year over year, mortgage, auto and telecommunications application fraud rates declined.
Provincial mortgage application fraud rates nevertheless varied considerably.
Ontario records the highest mortgage fraud rate
Ontario’s mortgage application fraud rate fell from 0.40% in Q2 2025 to 0.28% in Q2 2026, while Alberta’s declined from 0.24% to 0.19%. Despite those improvements, the two provinces recorded the highest rates in the country. Quebec’s rate also eased, from 0.20% to 0.18%.
Ontario’s mortgage delinquency trend also stood apart. The share of mortgage balances at least 90 days past due reached approximately 0.40% in July 2026, compared with roughly 0.21% across the rest of Canada.
More than 80% of Ontario mortgage applications identified as fraudulent involved prime and super-prime applicants, defined in the presentation as those with Equifax Risk Score 2 (ERS2) scores above 700.
Applicants aged 36 to 45 accounted for the largest share of Ontario’s fraudulent mortgage applications, at about 36%, followed by those aged 46 to 55 and 26 to 35.
Migration adds to Alberta’s credit-risk picture
Equifax also highlighted interprovincial migration as a factor in Alberta’s credit-risk profile.
Among people under 35 who moved to Alberta from another province last year, more than 70% came from Ontario and B.C., according to Equifax. The bureau said many arrived with existing debt burdens and financial pressures.
Equifax reported a 30-plus-day consumer delinquency rate of 7.24% among people who had moved to Alberta, compared with a provincial rate of 5.64%.
“Many of those movers are bringing with them their existing debt burdens and financial strain. So this creates localized pockets of elevated delinquency,” Davies said.
Equifax urges lenders to account for regional differences
Equifax recommended stronger checks at application, including document authentication, alongside monitoring for missed first payments and changes in debt levels and payment behaviour that could indicate fraud.
Davies described fraud and credit risk as “hyper-localized,” warning against underwriting policies that overlook provincial differences.
“Any national underwriting policies that you have there that fail to account for those provincial differences are going to lead to some very real challenges and increasing losses in this space.”
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Last modified: October 2, 2026
