TD cuts Canadian home sales forecast as bond yields climb
“Now, I’m comfortable with the 5-year yield. I do think that there’s room for it to begin to pull back, probably not till next year,” Burleton said.
He added that yields would not return to March 2025 levels. “They’re going to remain more elevated for longer,” he said.
Even under TD’s baseline, sales are expected to stay well below pre-pandemic levels next year.
At #MortgageFest Canada, Aled ab Iorwerth of CMHC and Taylor Little of Neighbourhood Holdings discussed housing supply, density and affordability, highlighting the need for more family-friendly housing options.https://t.co/QGc0eiJT9M
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 25, 2026
Where brokers can expect the strongest home sales rebound
The provincial outlook is uneven. Ontario’s sales are forecast to fall 3.0% this year and then rebound 7.4% in 2027, the strongest gain of any province. British Columbia sales are expected to drop 5.6% before recovering 5.4%.
Prices in both provinces are expected to lag. After declines of 2.6% in Ontario and 1.3% in B.C. this year, TD sees gains of just 0.6% and 0.9% in 2027, held back by weak population growth.
