Why Toronto went from world’s strongest housing market to weakest
The slide is a sharp reversal for Toronto. UBS identified it as the strongest market in its study between 2014 and 2022, when real prices doubled, and the city now sits nearly 30% below that peak. Vancouver prices are 20% below their 2022 high, and sales there are at a 25-year low.
UBS pointed to three forces behind the correction: higher interest rates, the federal foreign-buyer ban and increased supply.
What does the UBS bubble index mean for borrowers?
On paper, the downturn makes Toronto look cheap by global standards. UBS estimates a skilled service worker needs less than five years of income to buy a 650-square-foot apartment near the city centre. That is the lowest ratio of any city studied, against about 15 years in Hong Kong and 11 in London.
The ownership math is less forgiving. UBS calculates the full cost of owning, including mortgage interest, maintenance, taxes and a risk premium.
