Canada’s GDP stalls in July as tariff pressure intensifies
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem already warned that a fresh round of US tariffs and elevated global oil prices risk undoing Canada’s hard-won economic recovery.
If the latest duties remain in place, the Bank estimates fourth-quarter GDP growth could be roughly halved to below 1%. The affected goods represent approximately 5% of Canada’s exports to the United States.
“The developments are pulling the economy in different directions,” Macklem said. “One creates downside risks to growth, while the other creates upside risks to inflation.”
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem issued a stark warning Monday that a fresh round of US tariffs and elevated global oil prices risk undoing Canada’s hard-won economic recovery.https://t.co/k19n8NXNPd
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) September 22, 2026
What the July miss means for mortgage professionals
Three pivotal data releases now stand between the industry and the Bank of Canada’s next call. The September jobs report arrives October 9, September CPI follows on October 19, and the rate decision itself lands October 28. The central bank has held its overnight rate at 2.75% since April.
Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto, was blunt about the shelf life of July’s print: “Given the escalation of US trade uncertainty towards the end of August, today’s data will likely be viewed as old news,” he wrote in a research note.
