CFTC flags manipulation risk in prediction market contracts tied to individual conduct
Whether the contract is vulnerable to manipulation not just by that person directly, but through external pressure on them; social engineering, inducements or organised public pressure campaigns. Whether the relevant conduct is subject to independent verification and substantial public scrutiny, a bar the CFTC indicates will be difficult to clear for actions taken in informal or private settings or by individuals who are not public figures. And whether the exchange has implemented surveillance and position-limit controls that are specifically calibrated to the individual risks each contract presents.
CIRO and the Canadian Securities Administrators have continued to review the terms under which event contracts may be offered to retail investors. The Ontario Securities Commission‘s existing ban on Polymarket – which runs until 2027 following a 2025 settlement – illustrates that Canadian regulators are prepared to act where they see compliance gaps, even for platforms that fall outside the CIRO framework.
Since January 2025, the CFTC has approved 12 new designated contract markets as the prediction market sector has expanded rapidly in the United States, with more than 1,600 event contracts listed by 2025 across categories ranging from financial indices and climate to politics, culture and sport.
More than 10 bills targeting the sector have been introduced in the US Congress since January 2026. The CFTC’s own enforcement division, meanwhile, has been managing that expansion with a headcount that former enforcement director Ian McGinley noted publicly was under 100 people.
