Canadian confidence is neutral as oil fuels inflation concerns

By Mario Baker Ramirez

(Bloomberg) — Canadian consumer confidence showed little sign of improvement in late September, as uncertainty over oil prices and a riskier interest rate outlook continued to weigh on households that were already feeling pessimistic. 

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index rose to a relatively neutral 50.88 in the week ended Sept. 25, up from 49.86 a week earlier. Both are below the 51.8 rating Canadians gave at the start of the month. A reading below 50 indicates net negative views. 

Consumers’ feelings about personal finances and job security improved modestly among those surveyed, though expectations for the economy and real estate market softened, Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos said. 

Some groups of consumers expressed greater wariness, suggesting pockets of weakness beneath an otherwise relatively stable headline reading. Deteriorating confidence was most pronounced among Canadians between the ages of 50 to 59, whose rating fell nearly four points down to 46.47 in the past four weeks. Middle-income households that earn between $60,000 and $74,999 also saw their confidence dip to 47.23 from 48.82 at the beginning of September.

The index is based on a four-week rolling average of interviews with about 1,000 Canadians, and measures perceptions related to personal finances, job security, economic strength and real estate values. 

The survey period coincides with words of caution from the Bank of Canada, as policymakers focus increasingly on the risk that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated.

Higher oil prices and constrained refining capacity are pushing inflation above earlier expectations, Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech last week. He warned that more persistent price pressures could require a higher policy rate. Rising energy prices are also directly putting pressure on household costs.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have also raised their inflation outlook, and are watching how oil prices, inflation and borrowing costs evolve ahead of the bank’s next rate decision and monetary policy report on Oct. 28. Manulife now expects the bank to raise rates at its next two meetings.

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Last modified: September 28, 2026