October Is the Best Time For Homebuyers to Score a Deal in These Major U.S. Metros
- Early October is typically the best time for homebuyers to score a deal in Boston, Chicago, and a few other U.S. metros, according to a Home Economics and Redfin analysis.
- For buyers in Philadelphia, Virginia Beach and a handful of other places, mid-October may be the best time to get a bargain.
- In Cleveland, Phoenix and Warren, house hunters may want to wait until late October.
October is the best time for homebuyers to score a deal in 16 major U.S. metro areas, including many places in the Midwest and on the East Coast.
Early October is prime dealmaking season for buyers in Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, New Brunswick, NJ and Orlando, FL. In several other places, including Philadelphia, Phoenix, and much of Ohio, the best deals arrive in mid- to late- October.
| U.S. Metros Where the Best Time For Homebuyers to Get a Deal is October | ||
| Early October | Mid October | Late October |
| Boston, MA | Cincinnati, OH | Cleveland, OH |
| Chicago, IL | Columbus, OH | Phoenix, AZ |
| Minneapolis, MN | Indianapolis, IN | Warren, MI
|
| New Brunswick, NJ | Montgomery County, PA | |
| Orlando, FL | Philadelphia, PA | |
| Pittsburgh, PA | ||
| Providence, RI | ||
| Virginia Beach, VA | ||
This is according to a Home Economics and Redfin analysis of housing market data; the analysis was originally completed in April.
“Seasonality trends suggest buyers in these places looking to score a bargain may want to get serious about their home search now that fall is here,” said Asad Khan, Redfin senior economist. “Each homebuyer has their own personal circumstances and their own timeline for purchasing a house, but if a lower price is a priority, October is the time to make a move in these places. Sellers who put their home on the market over the summer might be open to dropping their price or offering concessions now that we’re past Labor Day.”
The seasonal sweet spot represents the time when discounts off a home’s original asking price—through price cuts or negotiations—are typically near their highest.
Homebuyers Have Room to Make a Deal
Places like New Brunswick (a New York City suburb) are particularly noteworthy because they’re balanced markets–i.e. not tilting toward buyers–meaning that throughout most of the year, sellers may not be keen to bring prices down. Redfin agents report that well-priced, move-in ready homes in North and Central New Jersey are getting multiple offers.
“October is when buyers finally get some breathing room,” said Natasha Bartolomeo, a local Redfin agent. “The market’s still competitive, so you can’t wait forever—but this is the window when listings that have been sitting since spring get more open to price drops or covering closing costs. If you’re serious about buying, this is the smart time to shop, before that leverage disappears.”
Buyers Should Balance Price and Choice
It’s important for homebuyers to remember that the best time to buy is more complex than the best month to score a deal. Redfin economists say buyers should balance choice and competition. More inventory to choose from improves the chance of finding the home that’s right for them, and more competition creates more urgency and requires stronger offers to win a home–decreasing the likelihood that buyers will get a deal.
For buyers who are financially ready and flexible on selection, October could offer some of the best negotiating opportunities of the year in many metros.
Sellers in the housing markets where buyers typically get the best deals in October may consider taking advantage of Redfin’s Early Access feature. It allows homeowners to start marketing their home as “coming soon” before its official market debut, which could help sellers determine the right price and gauge demand early.
The table below shows three key moments for homebuyers–most new listings, most inventory, and best deals–across major U.S. metro areas.
| Best Time to Buy a Home, Metro-Level Summary Please note that this table includes 3 key moments for buyers; it’s important for buyers to balance what’s most important for them–choice or price |
|||
| Most New Listings | Most Fresh Inventory | Best Deals | |
| Anaheim, CA | Mid May | Late June | Late August |
| Atlanta, GA | Mid May | Mid July | Early September |
| Austin, TX | Mid May | Early July | Late August |
| Baltimore, MD | Early May | Early June | Mid September |
| Boston, MA | Mid May | Mid July | Early October |
| Chicago, IL | Mid May | Early June | Early October |
| Cincinnati, OH | Mid May | Mid July | Mid October |
| Cleveland, OH | Mid May | Mid July | Late October |
| Columbus, OH | Late June | Mid July | Mid October |
| Dallas, TX | Late June | Early August | Mid September |
| Denver, CO | Mid May | Mid July | Early September |
| Detroit, MI | Early August | Early September | Mid December |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | Early February | Late March | Mid December |
| Fort Worth, TX | Late June | Mid August | Mid September |
| Houston, TX | Late May | Mid July | Late September |
| Indianapolis, IN | Mid May | Mid July | Mid October |
| Jacksonville, FL | Early May | Mid May | Mid September |
| Las Vegas, NV | Late May | Mid June | Late September |
| Los Angeles, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Mid September |
| Miami, FL | Early February | Late March | Mid December |
| Milwaukee, WI | Mid May | Mid July | Early November |
| Minneapolis, MN | Mid May | Mid July | Early October |
| Montgomery County, PA | Mid May | Early June | Mid October |
| Nashville, TN | Mid May | Mid July | Mid September |
| Nassau County, NY | Mid May | Late June | Late August |
| New Brunswick, NJ | Mid May | Early June | Early October |
| New York, NY | Mid May | Early June | Mid August |
| Newark, NJ | Mid May | Early June | Late August |
| Oakland, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Late August |
| Orlando, FL | Early May | Mid July | Early October |
| Philadelphia, PA | Mid May | Early June | Mid October |
| Phoenix, AZ | Late March | Early April | Late October |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Mid May | Early July | Mid October |
| Portland, OR | Mid May | Mid July | Late August |
| Providence, RI | Mid May | Late June | Mid October |
| Riverside, CA | Mid May | Mid June | Early November |
| Sacramento, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Late August |
| San Antonio, TX | Late May | Mid July | Mid September |
| San Diego, CA | Mid May | Mid July | Mid September |
| San Francisco, CA | Late September | Late October | Late September |
| San Jose, CA | Mid May | Early June | Late August |
| Seattle, WA | Mid May | Mid July | Early September |
| Tampa, FL | Late March | Early April | Early November |
| Virginia Beach, VA | Early May | Mid June | Mid October |
| Warren, MI | Mid May | Late August | Late October |
| Washington, DC | Early May | Early June | Late September |
| West Palm Beach, FL | Early February | Late March | Mid December |
Methodology
To identify the best time to buy, this Home Economics and Redfin analysis focuses on the seasonal indexes for three metrics: new listings, fresh inventory, and the average discount.
- Most new listings: the week when the flow of new listings is greatest relative to the annual average.
- Most fresh inventory: the week the stock of active listings with 60 days or less on market is greatest relative to the annual average.
- Best deals: To identify the period with the “best deals” we identify the moment when the average discount (original list price divided by final sale price) reaches an “inflection point,” meaning it slows or shrinks heading into late fall or winter. We characterize this moment as reflecting the best deals since buyers typically have ample inventory to choose from while discounts approach a local maximum. To identify these moments, we first fit a smoothed curve to the average discount seasonal index for each region to remove week-to-week noise. Starting from the spring trough—the week when homes sell closest to (or above) their list price—we find the week of maximum slope, representing the period of fastest improvement in the average discount. We then identify the first subsequent week where the slope falls below 10% of that maximum, marking the point where average discounts have largely plateaued. For metros where the slope never drops below this threshold (i.e., discounts continue to grow aggressively through year-end), we use the week of the overall peak discount instead.
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