Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, September 21: A Little Respite

We’re starting the week with a bit of stability from mortgage rates, which is pretty welcome. That stability is happening just north of 7% though, which is a bit less welcome.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 7.04% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is one basis point lower than Friday but seven basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

For more on what drove mortgage rates over 7%, and where they might go next, keep reading below the chart.

There really isn’t much going on this week in terms of economic data releases and other planned events that can influence mortgage rates. For now, the fallout from last week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve is still the main attraction.

The bigger news out of the September meeting wasn’t the rate hike that basically everyone expected —, it was the potential for additional rate hikes on the way. The Fed released an updated Summary of Economic Projections, where the committee members shared their anonymized predictions for major metrics. (Except for Chair Kevin Warsh, who refuses to participate.)

But there’s also a decent contingent who think it should go 50 basis points higher, which could be spread out between the October and December meetings, or be one sizable hike, probably in December. (Even though the Federal Reserve is politically independent, there’s a lot of chatter that a rate hike right before the midterm elections could be perceived as a political move.)

Parsing Warsh’s words at the post-announcement press conference also has folks thinking this isn’t a one-and-done rate hike. One phrase was quickly singled out: “dose of accommodation.”

This first came up fairly early in his prepared remarks. “I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,” Warsh said. “This view was widely shared by the committee. So, we removed a dose of accommodation.” He went on to reference the “dose of accommodation” twice more while taking reporters’ questions.

Between the implication of “dose” seeming like it wouldn’t happen just once, Warsh otherwise sounding like he believes the economy is strong and of course, the dot plot, markets are anticipating one or more additional rate hikes by the end of the year.

On the other hand though … the Fed fights inflation by raising the funds rate, and changes to that key rate ripple out to every corner of the economy. With at least one additional rate hike on deck, we’re now potentially looking at a higher for longer rate environment.

So while the Fed’s actions, and markets’ reactions to them, are taking some of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop. The next potential market mover, at least that we can expect, is August’s Personal Consumption Price Index, due out next Wednesday. PCE’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and if it comes in above predictions that could spell even higher rates ahead.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.54% or higher.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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