Why Is Crypto Up Today? Bitcoin Tops $80,000 as Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin Rise Up to 7%
The crypto market is up today (Friday), with Bitcoin back above $80,000 and Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin rising 6% to 7%. Bitcoin traded at $80,914 on Binance at 18:07 UTC, up 5.9% on the day, while Ether rose 6.4% to $2,603, XRP gained 7.3% to $1.39 and Dogecoin added 7% to $0.0874 on Bitstamp.
The move comes two days after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and three days after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. Neither shock broke the charts, and all four coins are now testing the upper edges of the ranges they built since August.
Why Crypto Is Rising After the Fed and CLARITY Shock
In early June, the same four coins sank together while stocks hit records. This time they are rising together, and the reasons are mostly regulatory and macro.
Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead told The Block that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are already putting in place much of what the failed bill promised.
“The industry doesn’t need Congress,” he said.
Macro pressure also eased. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5% after the Fed decision, then gave some of that move back as oil pulled away from its highs, according to Nexo’s daily market dispatch.
The Bank of Japan‘s 25 basis point hike, the last major central bank event of the week, passed without a new selloff.
Derivatives traders lean the same way. Andrew Melville, head of research at Block Scholes, said in a note that short-dated implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ether fell strongly once the week’s event risks passed.
He added that 7-day volatility smiles are “skewed strongly towards bullish positioning in call options.”
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $82,600 Is the Last Barrier Before $100,000
Bitcoin is doing what I described in my golden cross analysis this morning. It bounced from the bottom of its range near $75,300 and is now attacking the top.
The 50-day EMA at $73,986 stays above the 200-day line at $73,234, so the golden cross that formed on September 12 is intact.
The level that decides the next leg is $82,614, the upper edge of a resistance band that reaches about $84,400. Price has stalled below it several times since late August, as I noted in my September 7 Bitcoin forecast.
A daily close above the band would open my target zone at $98,068 to $99,486, about 21% to 23% above today’s price.
Bitcoin daily: price at $80,914 tests the $82,614 barrier below the $98K to $99.5K target
If the breakout fails again, the range floor at $75,339 is the first support, 6.9% below the current price. A daily close under it would put $66,780 back in play.
Ethereum Tests the Top of Its Range at $2,616
Ether has spent most of the time since the late August breakout between $2,393 and $2,616, a range just over 9% wide. Today’s high of $2,609 took it to the very top of that box. The 50-day EMA at $2,295 already runs above the 200-day EMA at $2,213, which supports the upside case.
The rally started from the base I described in my July Ethereum analysis, when ETH cleared its year-long downtrend.
A daily close above $2,616 is my trigger. The first target is $2,757, about 6% higher, and above it the chart shows little resistance until $3,371, roughly 30% from here. A rejection would send Ether back to the $2,393 floor, 8% lower.
Ethereum daily: ETH at $2,603 tests the top of its $2,393 to $2,616 range
XRP Price Returns Above the 200-Day EMA Inside Its Bull Flag
A day ago I wrote that the CLARITY Act selloff left XRP’s bull flag intact, with the price near $1.30. Today XRP bounced from the lower half of that flag to its upper edge, reclaiming the 200-day EMA at $1.3538 on the way.
Today’s high of $1.4019 poked above the flag. The daily candle has not closed yet, so I treat it as a test rather than a breakout. The measured move of the flag still points to $1.97, about 42% above the current price, but $1.46 and $1.56 stand in the way.
XRP daily bull flag: price at $1.39 retakes the 200-day EMA, measured target at $1.97
A daily close below the 50-day EMA at $1.2877 would put the lower edge of the flag under pressure and weaken the pattern.
Dogecoin Price Still Trades Below Its 200-Day EMA
Dogecoin matched the rest of the market on the day, but its chart is the weakest of the four. In July I warned about a trendline break, and the decline stopped near $0.068 before the August spike.
The 50-day EMA at $0.0817 is still below the 200-day EMA at $0.0930, and price has failed to hold above the 200-day line since the August spike.
The first test is $0.0884, just 1.2% above today’s price. Above it, the 200-day EMA and the $0.0950 resistance form the real barrier.
Only a daily close above $0.0950 would open $0.1043 and then $0.1157, about 19% and 32% higher. Support sits at $0.0800, which the latest pullback briefly pierced before today’s rebound.
Dogecoin daily: DOGE at $0.0874 still trades below the 200-day EMA and the $0.095 barrier
How High Can Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin Go?
| Coin | Confirmation | Target | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Daily close above $82,614 | $98,068 to $99,486 | Daily close below $75,339 |
| Ethereum | Daily close above $2,616 | $2,757, then $3,371 | Daily close below $2,393 |
| XRP | Daily close above the flag, then $1.46 and $1.56 | $1.97 | Daily close below $1.2877 |
| Dogecoin | Daily close above $0.0950 | $0.1043, then $0.1157 | Daily close below $0.0800 |
What Big Banks Expect for Bitcoin and Ether
Bitcoin is already trading close to Citi’s forecast. In July the bank cut its 12-month targets to $82,000 for Bitcoin and $2,240 for Ether, after it lowered its expected ETF inflows to zero.
Bitcoin sits about 1% below that level, and Ether trades about 14% above it.
Standard Chartered is more bullish. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, cut its year-end 2026 targets in June but still expects both coins to rally from here.
- Citi, 12 months: Bitcoin $82,000, Ether $2,240
- Standard Chartered, end of 2026: Bitcoin $100,000, Ether $4,000
Standard Chartered’s $100,000 Bitcoin target sits about 24% above the current price, close to the top of my own target zone.
Some analysts see the drivers shifting away from macro. Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said on Thursday that crypto now shows “less correlation to macro data” than at any time in the past 14 years.
He expects two or three more Fed hikes in 2027, but argued that institutional adoption will matter more for the next cycle.
FAQ
Why is crypto up today?
Crypto is rising because the two shocks of this week, the failed CLARITY Act vote and the Fed’s first hike since 2023, did not trigger further selling. Treasury yields eased, and investors are betting that the SEC and CFTC can deliver clearer rules without Congress.
Is Bitcoin going to $100,000?
My chart points to $98,068 to $99,486, but only after a daily close above $82,614. Standard Chartered sees $100,000 by the end of 2026, while Citi’s 12-month forecast is $82,000.
What is the XRP price target?
The bull flag on the daily chart points to $1.97. XRP first needs to clear $1.46 and $1.56, and the pattern weakens below $1.2877.
Why is Dogecoin weaker than Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Dogecoin rose as much as the others today, but it still trades below its 200-day EMA at $0.0930, while Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP trade above theirs. Its first real test is $0.0950.
The crypto market is up today (Friday), with Bitcoin back above $80,000 and Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin rising 6% to 7%. Bitcoin traded at $80,914 on Binance at 18:07 UTC, up 5.9% on the day, while Ether rose 6.4% to $2,603, XRP gained 7.3% to $1.39 and Dogecoin added 7% to $0.0874 on Bitstamp.
The move comes two days after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023 and three days after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. Neither shock broke the charts, and all four coins are now testing the upper edges of the ranges they built since August.
Why Crypto Is Rising After the Fed and CLARITY Shock
In early June, the same four coins sank together while stocks hit records. This time they are rising together, and the reasons are mostly regulatory and macro.
Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead told The Block that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are already putting in place much of what the failed bill promised.
“The industry doesn’t need Congress,” he said.
Macro pressure also eased. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5% after the Fed decision, then gave some of that move back as oil pulled away from its highs, according to Nexo’s daily market dispatch.
The Bank of Japan‘s 25 basis point hike, the last major central bank event of the week, passed without a new selloff.
Derivatives traders lean the same way. Andrew Melville, head of research at Block Scholes, said in a note that short-dated implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ether fell strongly once the week’s event risks passed.
He added that 7-day volatility smiles are “skewed strongly towards bullish positioning in call options.”
Bitcoin Price Prediction: $82,600 Is the Last Barrier Before $100,000
Bitcoin is doing what I described in my golden cross analysis this morning. It bounced from the bottom of its range near $75,300 and is now attacking the top.
The 50-day EMA at $73,986 stays above the 200-day line at $73,234, so the golden cross that formed on September 12 is intact.
The level that decides the next leg is $82,614, the upper edge of a resistance band that reaches about $84,400. Price has stalled below it several times since late August, as I noted in my September 7 Bitcoin forecast.
A daily close above the band would open my target zone at $98,068 to $99,486, about 21% to 23% above today’s price.
Bitcoin daily: price at $80,914 tests the $82,614 barrier below the $98K to $99.5K target
If the breakout fails again, the range floor at $75,339 is the first support, 6.9% below the current price. A daily close under it would put $66,780 back in play.
Ethereum Tests the Top of Its Range at $2,616
Ether has spent most of the time since the late August breakout between $2,393 and $2,616, a range just over 9% wide. Today’s high of $2,609 took it to the very top of that box. The 50-day EMA at $2,295 already runs above the 200-day EMA at $2,213, which supports the upside case.
The rally started from the base I described in my July Ethereum analysis, when ETH cleared its year-long downtrend.
A daily close above $2,616 is my trigger. The first target is $2,757, about 6% higher, and above it the chart shows little resistance until $3,371, roughly 30% from here. A rejection would send Ether back to the $2,393 floor, 8% lower.
Ethereum daily: ETH at $2,603 tests the top of its $2,393 to $2,616 range
XRP Price Returns Above the 200-Day EMA Inside Its Bull Flag
A day ago I wrote that the CLARITY Act selloff left XRP’s bull flag intact, with the price near $1.30. Today XRP bounced from the lower half of that flag to its upper edge, reclaiming the 200-day EMA at $1.3538 on the way.
Today’s high of $1.4019 poked above the flag. The daily candle has not closed yet, so I treat it as a test rather than a breakout. The measured move of the flag still points to $1.97, about 42% above the current price, but $1.46 and $1.56 stand in the way.
XRP daily bull flag: price at $1.39 retakes the 200-day EMA, measured target at $1.97
A daily close below the 50-day EMA at $1.2877 would put the lower edge of the flag under pressure and weaken the pattern.
Dogecoin Price Still Trades Below Its 200-Day EMA
Dogecoin matched the rest of the market on the day, but its chart is the weakest of the four. In July I warned about a trendline break, and the decline stopped near $0.068 before the August spike.
The 50-day EMA at $0.0817 is still below the 200-day EMA at $0.0930, and price has failed to hold above the 200-day line since the August spike.
The first test is $0.0884, just 1.2% above today’s price. Above it, the 200-day EMA and the $0.0950 resistance form the real barrier.
Only a daily close above $0.0950 would open $0.1043 and then $0.1157, about 19% and 32% higher. Support sits at $0.0800, which the latest pullback briefly pierced before today’s rebound.
Dogecoin daily: DOGE at $0.0874 still trades below the 200-day EMA and the $0.095 barrier
How High Can Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin Go?
| Coin | Confirmation | Target | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Daily close above $82,614 | $98,068 to $99,486 | Daily close below $75,339 |
| Ethereum | Daily close above $2,616 | $2,757, then $3,371 | Daily close below $2,393 |
| XRP | Daily close above the flag, then $1.46 and $1.56 | $1.97 | Daily close below $1.2877 |
| Dogecoin | Daily close above $0.0950 | $0.1043, then $0.1157 | Daily close below $0.0800 |
What Big Banks Expect for Bitcoin and Ether
Bitcoin is already trading close to Citi’s forecast. In July the bank cut its 12-month targets to $82,000 for Bitcoin and $2,240 for Ether, after it lowered its expected ETF inflows to zero.
Bitcoin sits about 1% below that level, and Ether trades about 14% above it.
Standard Chartered is more bullish. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, cut its year-end 2026 targets in June but still expects both coins to rally from here.
- Citi, 12 months: Bitcoin $82,000, Ether $2,240
- Standard Chartered, end of 2026: Bitcoin $100,000, Ether $4,000
Standard Chartered’s $100,000 Bitcoin target sits about 24% above the current price, close to the top of my own target zone.
Some analysts see the drivers shifting away from macro. Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said on Thursday that crypto now shows “less correlation to macro data” than at any time in the past 14 years.
He expects two or three more Fed hikes in 2027, but argued that institutional adoption will matter more for the next cycle.
FAQ
Why is crypto up today?
Crypto is rising because the two shocks of this week, the failed CLARITY Act vote and the Fed’s first hike since 2023, did not trigger further selling. Treasury yields eased, and investors are betting that the SEC and CFTC can deliver clearer rules without Congress.
Is Bitcoin going to $100,000?
My chart points to $98,068 to $99,486, but only after a daily close above $82,614. Standard Chartered sees $100,000 by the end of 2026, while Citi’s 12-month forecast is $82,000.
What is the XRP price target?
The bull flag on the daily chart points to $1.97. XRP first needs to clear $1.46 and $1.56, and the pattern weakens below $1.2877.
Why is Dogecoin weaker than Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Dogecoin rose as much as the others today, but it still trades below its 200-day EMA at $0.0930, while Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP trade above theirs. Its first real test is $0.0950.
