San Francisco Fed president joins cutting-edge panel to chart labor market’s AI transition

The Commission on Artificial Intelligence and the Future of the American Workforce — a pioneering research initiative launched in June by the Urban Institute and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) — has announced its roster of commissioners.

The 20 leaders from a variety of disciplines will be tasked with answering one of the labor market’s most pressing questions: How will artificial intelligence, and the transition to an AI-powered economy, disrupt labor dynamics, business investment and workers’ incomes?

Co-chaired by Republican former speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, and Democratic former secretary of the Commerce Department during the Biden administration, Gina Raimondo, the commission seeks to begin preparing the U.S. economy for a transition that policymakers have been slow to address.

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Raimondo cautioned during the commission’s launch event in June that up to 50 million U.S. jobs are considered “AI-vulnerable.” Deep partisan divides already fracturing U.S. communities risk widening as a result of this transition being mishandled, she warned.

“We’re not trying to have a single right solution, but a suite of possible solutions grounded in rigorous research,” said Sarah Rosen Wartell, president of Urban Institute, in June.

The 20 commissioners who joined the initiative in September will spearhead that process. They include the likes of Mary Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, as well as Tim Ryan, a former Democratic U.S. representative from Ohio who is not related to the former speaker of the House.

Bridging divides

By joining forces in this effort, AEI and Urban Institute — which are loosely perceived as more right-leaning and more left-leaning policy groups, respectively — have also said they hope to model problem-solving across ideological divides.

“Secretary Raimondo and I are committed to a substantive, data-driven effort — not partisan sound bites — and we are deeply grateful to this exceptional group for stepping up to lead,” said Ryan in the Sept. 10 announcement naming the commission’s new members.

Inertia from lawmakers for what could be one of the most dramatic workforce transitions in generations stems in part from uncertainty about which sectors may be most vulnerable to AI disruptions, and with what severity and in what sequence job impacts may emerge.

With experience spanning business, labor, government and academia, the commissioners “will deliver real-time, evidence-based policy playbooks to help policymakers respond to artificial intelligence’s impact on jobs and workers,” the announcement stated.

Through listening sessions, worker panels, roundtable discussions and employer site visits, the commission says it will hear from individuals “most affected by the AI transition.” That will accompany empirical research on the evolving state of play concerning AI and workforce trends.

“A research team composed of experts in macroeconomics and labor economics, AI development and technology, AI regulation, labor market information systems, skills and training, public benefits and social insurance, business practices and place-based impacts will inform the commissioners’ approach,” said the press release.

In addition to research reports and practical policy guides that will be published on a rolling basis, the commission says it will produce a “final synthesis report in 2027 to help policymakers address a range of potential AI scenarios.”

‘No longer a future problem’

From a historical perspective, the commission’s efforts are both unprecedented and groundbreaking, as artificial intelligence threatens to dilute the scarcity premium on human intelligence grounding labor markets, credit models, entitlement programs and tax systems.

“The impact of AI is no longer a future problem,” Raimondo said in last week’s press announcement. “AI is already reshaping jobs and earnings, and the policy response has not kept pace.”

Names and affiliations of the 20 newly named commissioners are listed below:

• Greg Acs, institute fellow, health, income and benefits policy division, Urban Institute
• Roy Austin Jr., director of Howard Law Artificial Intelligence Initiative
• Beth Babcock, former president and CEO, Economic Mobility Pathways
• Gregory Bernstein, chairman and CEO, The New Industrial Corporation
• Joshua Bolten, president and CEO, Business Roundtable
• Erik Brynjolfsson, director, Stanford Digital Economy Lab
• Claude Cummings Jr., president, Communications Workers of America
• Mary Daly, president and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• Maria Flynn, president and CEO, Jobs for the Future
• Harry Holzer, professor of public policy, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University
• Brendan McCord, founder and chair, Cosmos Institute
• Jamie Merisotis, president and CEO, Lumina Foundation
• Jennifer Pahlka, co-founder and board chair, Recoding America Fund
• Fred Payne, president and CEO, United Way of Central Indiana
• Arun Rao, adjunct professor, University of California, Los Angeles
• Tim Ryan, former U.S. representative, D-Ohio
• Juan Salgado, chancellor, City Colleges of Chicago
• Matt Sigelman, president, Burning Glass Institute
• Jeremy Singer, president, College Board
• Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies, American Enterprise Institute