Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day
Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day
Thu, Sep 17 2026, 6:39 PM
It was heartening to see bonds erase yesterday’s losses by the time domestic trading got underway today. Unmitigated victory would have required flat/higher oil prices. Instead, we were forced to wonder how much credit to give lower oil prices versus the expectation that longer-term rates would paradoxically appreciate a more hawkish Fed stance. This uncertainty increasingly vanished throughout the day. Oil prices steadily rose more than $3 between 8:30am and 1pm, but bonds were sideways to stronger the entire time. There’s still some caution suggested by a technical floor at 4.94%, but yields are now flirting with a break below that level in after-hours trading (even as oil prices remain more than $2 higher than this morning). We’re not out of the woods yet, but today looks to have been a step in the right direction. All this having been said, rates aren’t immune from future spikes if econ data, issuance, or fuel prices surprise to the upside.
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- Building Permits (Aug)
- 1.394M vs 1.41M f’cast, 1.433M prev
- Continued Claims (Sep)/05
- 1730.0K vs 1780K f’cast, 1774K prev
- Housing starts number mm (Aug)
- 1.275M vs 1.31M f’cast, 1.239M prev
- Jobless Claims (Sep)/12
- 196K vs 208K f’cast, 206K prev
- Philly Fed Business Index (Sep)
- 37.8 vs 30.5 f’cast, 47.4 prev
- Philly Fed Prices Paid (Sep)
- 48.60 vs — f’cast, 40.90 prev
- Building Permits (Aug)
12:21 PM
MBS up almost half a point and 10yr down 7.7bps at 4.942
01:56 PM
MBS up half a point and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.946
03:20 PM
Best levels of the day. MBS up 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr down 8.5bps at 4.934
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