Bitcoin (BTC) Must Clear $81,700 To Confirm A New Bull Market : CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s rebound has lifted sentiment, yet CryptoQuant’s latest research argues that a new bull market has not been confirmed. After a roughly 24 percent advance over two weeks, the BTC price stalled inside a $76,000–$82,000 band and was trading near $77,000 when the firm published its note.

Head of research Julio Moreno described the medium-term trend as still constructive, but said a dense stack of technical and on-chain resistance now sits directly overhead.

The decisive level is Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, currently near $81,700. In prior cycles, a close above that long-term average has been the historical marker that a bull market has “officially” begun.

Until price clears it with conviction, CryptoQuant says the market is more likely to keep oscillating than to start a sustained expansion.

An earlier September attempt to poke above the average was quickly rejected, reinforcing the importance of a decisive break rather than a brief spike.

Immediately beneath that moving average is a heavy supply zone between $77,100 and $80,200.

On-chain data shows long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC inside that range during a 30-day window this year—the nearest and thickest overhead supply wall.

Those coins can reappear as selling pressure if price revisits the same area, because previous holders may look to reduce exposure near their earlier exit prices.

Absorbing that supply is therefore a prerequisite before higher targets become realistic.

If Bitcoin does reclaim $81,700, two further ceilings come into play. CryptoQuant’s 3x Metcalfe band, a network-activity valuation model based on active addresses, sits near $83,600.

Beyond that, the upper band of traders’ on-chain realized price is around $88,700—a zone where unrealized profits have historically prompted active traders to distribute.

Clearing those successive layers would strengthen the case that a new uptrend is taking hold.

Downside levels are equally mapped. The first technical support is the 200-day moving average near $70,000.

A deeper retreat could test $62,000–$65,000, where long-term holders accumulated about 476,000 BTC earlier this year.

That cluster of buying may cushion selling, though it would still mark a sizable correction from current prices. CryptoQuant’s stance remains cautiously constructive: structure has improved, but confirmation requires demand to digest nearby supply and a close above the 365-day average. Until then, range-bound trading remains the base case.

CoinShares offers a more macro-driven overlay.

Head of research James Butterfill argued that a firmer-than-expected core CPI print raised the odds of a restrictive Federal Reserve stance, including a possible September rate hike, and that this mix can cap Bitcoin’s near-term upside around the $80,000 area.

At the same time, CoinShares framed an “unusual mix”: sticky inflation is a short-term headwind, but the Treasury’s bond-buyback program has struggled to pull down long-end yields.

If that pressure forces a larger policy response later, the firm said it could become a meaningful medium-term catalyst by reinforcing the currency-debasement case that has historically supported Bitcoin.

Recent digital asset ETP flows turning negative after the inflation surprise also fit CoinShares’ view that the market still needs a clearer easing signal before a durable breakout.

Grayscale’s research desk is more constructive on the cycle itself.

Head of research Zach Pandl has said the June low near $58,000 may have marked the bottom, pointing to Bitcoin’s resilience to negative headlines over the summer and a stabilization in large corporate treasury behavior.

In that framing, the current $76,000–$82,000 pause looks less like the start of a new collapse and more like a test of whether the rebound can become a lasting uptrend.

Grayscale’s longer-running thesis still ties higher prices to store-of-value demand, fiscal concerns, and a clearer U.S. regulatory path, even if the firm is cautious about treating every bounce as confirmation.

Taken together with CryptoQuant’s $81,700 threshold, the institutional picture is consistent: the market may have put the worst of the drawdown behind it, but Bitcoin still has to prove it can absorb overhead supply and reclaim the levels that would put ETF holders and other large buyers firmly back in profit.