Rates steady, but economists see a different move on the horizon
Stephen Brown, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, pushed that timeline earlier, suggesting “an interest rate hike at the final meeting of the year, in December, is arguably now looking more likely” than a delay to mid-2027, contingent on energy prices holding near current levels.
Etienne Bordeleau-Labrecque, vice president and portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners in Canada, characterised the Bank as choosing the path of least resistance: “Talk hawkish, do nothing, maintain credibility.”
He expects the overnight rate to remain at 2.25% through late 2026 or early 2027, with hikes contingent on whether Q2’s strength proves durable.
What the economist split means for mortgage clients
Marc Ercolao, economist at TD Economics in Toronto, framed the hold as deliberate flexibility preservation: “We continue to expect rates to remain unchanged through next year, while the Bank preserves the flexibility should conditions deteriorate or inflation prove more persistent than anticipated.”
The next decision on October 28, arrives alongside a fresh Monetary Policy Report — the first updated economic projections since July — making it the most consequential remaining announcement of the year.
