Global Market Today: Asian bonds fall as geopolitical risks lift oil, yields
Government bonds in Japan, Australia and New Zealand fell after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.77%, its highest level since January 2025. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 2.965% after touching a three-decade high in the previous session.
Brent crude extended gains in early Asian trading to over $91 a barrel after renewed fighting in the Middle East. The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month as American forces hit an island in the Strait of Hormuz and the Islamic Republic responded by launching attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan.
Elsewhere, the MSCI Asia Pacific equities gauge was little changed, with focus on the technology sector after Nvidia Corp. said it’s investing $3.5 billion in MediaTek Inc., deepening its collaboration with the Taiwanese chipmaker.
The flare-up in Middle East tensions has dimmed prospects for a normalization of shipping through Hormuz, keeping oil prices elevated and adding to inflation concerns. Money markets have increased bets on a September interest-rate hike after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh underscored his commitment to bring down inflation at Jackson Hole last week, putting increased focus on this week’s employment report.
“With traders tracking geopolitical volatility as well as potential seasonal volatility, it will be interesting to see which market impulse from last week might carry over to this week,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Unexpectedly strong labor-market data might be taken as bad news by the market, since it could reinforce expectations for a rate hike.”
The August US payrolls data is expected to be consistent with general steadiness in the labor market that’s helping the Fed focus more intently on its battle with inflation.
Friday’s jobs report “will be critical,” though the Sept. 11 consumer-price data will be even more important given Warsh’s view that the US economy is at full employment, said JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Andrew Tyler. He’s shifted to a “tactically cautious” view on US stocks for the next few weeks, but expects a strong backdrop will persist amid economic data and earnings.
