Canada’s housing market is healing – but far too slowly to feel it
Hogue writes that “an improving job market will do wonders for confidence,” with GDP growth expected to persist through end-2027 and labour market slack absorbed by next spring. The Bank of Canada, however, is forecast to hold its policy rate through the rest of 2026 before raising it in 2027.
While Canada’s national housing affordability has reached its best level in four years, Hogue’s mid-year report makes clear that further rate-driven relief is largely exhausted.
Canada’s economy posted its strongest quarterly expansion in more than three years in the second quarter of 2026, erasing recession fears and hardening the case for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold its policy rate at 2.25% when it meets on September 2.https://t.co/xDFLm6eofe
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) August 31, 2026
On the ground, brokers have flagged the difficulty of reading conditions in real time. Elan Weintraub, co-founder and director at Mortgage Outlet in Toronto, told Canadian Mortgage Professional in June that real estate remains “extremely micro-fragmented,” with conditions differing sharply by geography, price point, and property type.
Regional divergence: Ontario, B.C. and the Alberta exception
The national numbers conceal stark provincial contrasts. Ontario resales are forecast to dip just 0.5% in 2026 before rising 8.2% in 2027; British Columbia faces a steeper 4.6% decline this year ahead of a 7.8% rebound.
Brendan Ogmundson, chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) in Vancouver, said earlier this year that “households will likely need a prolonged period of stability to re-enter the market,” a view consistent with Hogue’s cautious provincial outlook.
