GDP data incoming: here’s what mortgage brokers need to know
Those exemptions have been the critical stabiliser for export-dependent sectors — and, by extension, for Canadian lenders and brokers monitoring Canada’s trade-exposed regional housing markets as a barometer of borrower confidence.
For the mortgage industry, the Q2 growth signal matters in part because it influences the Bank of Canada’s rate calculus. The central bank has held its overnight rate at 2.25% since late 2025, with the governing council citing ongoing trade uncertainty as a key reason for caution.
Headwinds persist into the second half
Even with Q2 tracking strongly, Janzen and Xu project that the pace of growth will moderate as the year progresses. The boost from net trade and auto production is unlikely to repeat, and declining population, a trend affecting mortgage demand across markets, is expected to remain a drag on total GDP.
Trade uncertainty and remaining product-specific tariffs continue to act as headwinds for business investment.
Early Q3 signals are nonetheless constructive. RBC’s tracking of consumer spending and a firming in hours worked in July both point to continued positive momentum, supporting the firm’s base case forecast for a gradual cyclical recovery in Canada’s mortgage market through the remainder of 2026, including per-capita growth improvement even as elevated trade risk persists.
