Canadian retail sales to fall 0.8% in July after strong 2Q
By Erik Hertzberg
(Bloomberg) — Canadian retail sales are set to fall for the first time this year, but strong second quarter purchases point to a rebound in consumption.
An advance estimate suggests retail sales fell 0.8% in July following a 0.6% gain in June, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. If that comes to pass it’d be the first decline in retail sales in seven months, breaking a surge in purchases that’s been driven by higher gasoline prices.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting a 0.4% increase in retail sales, following a revised 1.1% gain in May.
Though the advance estimate carries no subsector details, the data to June show the growth in purchases are broadening beyond gasoline sales, which fell 4.1% on a nominal basis as prices declined. Higher global energy prices from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East had propped up sales for most of the first half of the year.
There’s also clearer signs of consumer resilience, with sales in June rising in seven of nine subsectors. On a volume basis, retail sales rose 1.5%, the biggest increase since March 2025.
The data add to evidence that the economy is set to rebound strongly in the second quarter after a year of flattened economic growth, brought on in part due to a sharp slowdown in population growth and the ongoing trade disputes with the U.S. On a quarterly basis, retail sales were up 2.2%, the fastest since the end of 2024. Volumes rose 0.4% between April and June.
The increase in June retail sales was led by general merchandise. Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 1% on the month. Clothing sales rose 3.1%.
Core retail sales, which exclude gas, autos and parts, rose 1.2% in June. Excluding just autos and auto parts, retail sales rose 0.5%, above a Bloomberg survey estimate.
–With assistance from Mario Baker Ramirez.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
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Last modified: August 21, 2026
