Starting a mortgage company in 2008 taught me not to fear volatility
The other thing 2008 taught me is not to overreact to every headline. You must understand the economy, interest rates, housing inventory, lending guidelines, and consumer behavior, but there is a difference between paying attention and panicking. We have seen that repeatedly in recent years. Rates move quickly and everyone has a prediction about where they are going next. Buyers hear rates are going to fall and decide to wait, then rates move the other direction, or people assume home prices are going to crash because affordability is difficult, while limited inventory keeps supporting prices in many markets. After more than two decades in this business, I have become cautious about pretending anyone can consistently predict what will happen next.
“If your advice only works when the market is good, you’re not really an advisor.”
Instead, I focus on what we can control. Can we structure the loan better, find a different program, improve the borrower’s qualification, help them negotiate seller credits, or solve an underwriting issue before they get into contract? Can we help a real estate agent make their buyer’s offer stronger? Those things create value regardless of what the 10-year Treasury does tomorrow, and they matter just as much in the kind of rate environment where mortgage rate volatility demands strategy over perfect timing rather than a lucky guess on direction.
Where market share actually gets won
There is another lesson from 2008 that gets overlooked: uncertain markets create opportunity. When the market gets difficult, some people pull back, stop marketing, stop investing in their business and eventually leave the industry. I have always looked at those periods differently. That is when I want to improve our systems, invest in technology, strengthen relationships and find ways to make our company better. I am taking the same approach today with AI and automation. I do not view technology as something that will replace a good mortgage professional. I see it as a way to eliminate repetitive work, catch mistakes earlier and give our team more time for the parts of the business where human experience actually matters, the same conviction behind why AI is changing mortgage origination while the broker’s role stays central. The businesses that come out of difficult markets stronger are usually the ones that kept improving while everyone else waited for conditions to improve.
The financial crisis also changed how I think about our responsibility to borrowers. When markets are uncertain, clients do not need a sales pitch. They need somebody willing to tell them the truth, whether that means telling a buyer purchasing makes sense, telling them to wait, recommending a higher rate with lower costs because they may have a chance to refinance later, or telling someone the loan they want is not the loan that is best for them. That is how long-term relationships get built, and it is the same principle behind why refinance came back on strategy rather than rate alone.
