Why US home prices aren’t falling despite a sluggish market
West Palm Beach posted a 0.9% monthly gain and an 8.9% annual increase as affluent buyers competed for luxury listings largely unconstrained by rate sensitivity. Pittsburgh and New York each added 1% month over month.
Ali Mafi, a Redfin Premier agent in San Francisco, previously said that the city’s trajectory had reversed completely from earlier pessimism.
“There was this hysteria a few years ago that people were leaving San Francisco in droves and the housing market was going to crash. That wasn’t true then and it’s the opposite of true now. They’re bringing so much money into the housing market — especially the luxury market,” Mafi said.
He noted some luxury properties were receiving dozens of offers. The pattern mirrors how wealthy buyers pushed luxury home prices higher through the first half of 2026 despite elevated rate headwinds.
Top 5 year-over-year price gainers — July 2026
| Metro | YoY change | MoM change |
|---|---|---|
|
San Francisco
California
|
+13.3% | +1.5% |
|
Chicago
Illinois
|
+9.5% | −0.3% |
|
Nassau County
New York
|
+9.4% | −0.2% |
|
Milwaukee
Wisconsin
|
+9.0% | −0.1% |
|
West Palm Beach
Florida
|
+8.9% | +0.9% |
Top 5 year-over-year price decliners — July 2026
| Metro | YoY change | MoM change |
|---|---|---|
|
San Antonio
Texas
|
−2.1% | +0.1% |
|
Fort Worth
Texas
|
−1.3% | −0.8% |
|
Dallas
Texas
|
−1.0% | 0.0% |
|
Austin
Texas
|
−1.0% | −0.6% |
|
Phoenix
Arizona
|
−0.9% | +0.1% |
Source: Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI), July 2026. Covers three months ending July 31, 2026. Month-over-month (MoM) figures are seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year (YoY) figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Where buyers are gaining the upper hand
Twenty of the 49 metros analyzed posted monthly price declines. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, led the pullback at -1.1%, followed by Fort Worth at -0.8%, and Austin, Miami, and Virginia Beach each falling 0.6%.
