Rate increase pressure builds inside the Fed as inflation lingers
What the hold means for mortgage brokers
Home-purchase mortgage activity remained depressed, the minutes confirmed — a finding that will surprise few brokers actively working with rate-sensitive buyers.
Samantha Shelton, mortgage broker and president of Align Lending, captured the prevailing uncertainty when she told Mortgage Professional America before the meeting that it also “wouldn’t surprise me if there was a little bit of a hike due to renewed inflation concerns, tied to energy prices and the Fed’s desire to reinforce its commitment to price stability.”
The labor market picture also muddied the outlook. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July even as the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, driven primarily by a shrinking labor force. Fed officials have repeatedly indicated that inflation remains the dominant concern over employment conditions.
Market pricing for a September 15–16 hike fell from 82% to 56% following the July decision, according to the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, suggesting traders are waiting for additional inflation data before committing to that view.
Given that most economists already anticipate no Fed rate moves in store for the rest of 2026, the September meeting may now be the most consequential of the year for both monetary policy and the mortgage market.
