Mortgage rates drifted downward today as no major news out of Iran is, essentially, good news for interest rates. Throughout the conflict, we’ve seen that positive headlines bring rates down while renewed fighting spikes rates up. It’s not really about the war itself — higher oil prices and inflation fears are what’s actally spurring rates.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.54% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is two basis points lower than yesterday and five basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Though rates have been highly responsive to events in the Iran war, as the conflict has dragged on we’ve seen somewhat of a return to business-as-usual reactions to domestic data and the Federal Reserve. For more on those dynamics, keep reading below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Before we dive into what’s coming up this week, let’s recap. Last week’s Consumer Price Index showed that annual inflation slowed slightly from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July. We’re still way above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, but markets took it as a sign that a September rate hike is less likely.
If it seems like inflation could be easing on its own, the argument for raising rates is harder to make — especially if it seems like the job market’s struggling. The Fed has two goals, maximum employment (if you want a job, you can find a job) and price stability (inflation’s reasonable). The central bankers tend to raise rates to slow inflation; they lower rates to encourage hiring.
We constantly remind you here that the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. And while people say the Federal Reserve raises or cuts rates, plural, it’s actually just one rate: The federal funds rate, which is an overnight borrowing rate for banks. But that super-short-term rate is so influential, changes to it ripple outward to every corner of the economy. When it looks like the Fed could make a move, mortgage lenders tend to start pricing it into their rates ahead of any official announcement.
So this week, the Nerds have been eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, which are due out this afternoon. The Fed held rates steady in July, but three officials dissented, favoring a quarter-point hike. The minutes could shed more light on whether those dissenters were truly outliers or it seemed like more folks could be convinced that inflation’s a big enough problem to require action.
If a rate hike in September (or at either of 2026’s other two remaining Fed meetings) starts to shift from possible to probable, that’s going to put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Rate cuts feel unlikely, so stable mortgage rates may be the best case scenario right now.
Though again — that’s just what’s going on in the U.S. Any significant changes to the situation in Iran could drive rates higher or allow them to drift lower, depending on the news. In general, we’ve seen mortgage rates rise when the conflict escalates and fall when it ebbs.
🤓 Kate on Rates: August 13, 2026
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you might start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.04% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinancethan you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
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