US house prices stuck near 1% growth for third month running
At the other end, Austin, Texas, posted a 2.9% year-over-year price decline, the steepest among tracked major metros. It is followed by Dallas at -2.5%, and Tampa, Fla., Denver, and Oakland each down 1.9%.
That Texas correction aligns with broader dynamics in Sun Belt markets, where homebuyer numbers have hit record lows as seller surplus continues to widen through the second half of 2026.
“In markets such as Austin, Texas, inventory remains elevated and prices continue to decline, even as inventory growth has recently turned negative,” Fleming said.
“Chicago is nearly the mirror image: inventory remains constrained and prices are rising, even as inventory gradually improves.”
Top 5 markets — year-over-year increases
| # | Metro area | YoY change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago, IL | +6.4% |
|
| 2 | Pittsburgh, PA | +5.1% |
|
| 3 | New Brunswick, NJ | +4.6% |
|
| 4 | Los Angeles, CA | +2.9% |
|
| 5 | Baltimore, MD | +2.8% |
|
Top 5 markets — year-over-year decreases
| # | Metro area | YoY change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin, TX | -2.9% |
|
| 2 | Dallas, TX | -2.5% |
|
| 3 | Tampa, FL | -1.9% |
|
| 3 | Denver, CO | -1.9% |
|
| 3 | Oakland, CA | -1.9% |
|
Source: First American Data & Analytics, July 2026 Home Price Index. Year-over-year, non-seasonally adjusted.
Starter homes offer pockets of strength
At the price-tier level, entry-level homes in several supply-constrained metros outperformed broader trends. New Brunswick, N.J., led all tracked markets with a 6.8% year-over-year starter-tier gain, followed by Pittsburgh at 6.0% and Baltimore at 4.7%.
