Homebuyer numbers hit record low as seller surplus widens
That dynamic has been building throughout 2026. As detailed in Redfin’s May buyer-seller data, sellers already hit a six-year high in spring even as demand stalled, a supply story that has since evolved into a demand problem, with buyers unable or unwilling to absorb today’s prices.
US housing market snapshot — July 2026
Est. buyers (national) 966,752 Record low ↓ 2.5% from June
Est. sellers (national) 1,462,921 Lowest in a year ↓ 0.3% from June
Seller surplus +51.3% Near Dec 2025 peak of 51.8%
▼ Top 5 buyer’s markets — sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margin
| # | Metro | Est. buyers | Est. sellers | Seller surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami, FL | 7,258 | 18,437 | +154% |
| 2 | Nashville, TN | 7,205 | 18,066 | +151% |
| 3 | Houston, TX | 19,862 | 45,641 | +130% |
| 4 | San Antonio, TX | 8,874 | 19,194 | +116% |
| 5 | Austin, TX | 8,416 | 17,832 | +112% |
▲ Top 5 seller’s markets — buyers outnumber sellers by the widest margin
| # | Metro | Est. buyers | Est. sellers | Buyer surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassau County, NY | 11,958 | 7,631 | +36% |
| 2 | Newark, NJ | 7,741 | 6,139 | +21% |
| 3 | Providence, RI | 5,418 | 4,512 | +17% |
| 4 | Milwaukee, WI | 6,390 | 5,427 | +15% |
| 5 | New Brunswick, NJ | 10,876 | 9,477 | +13% |
How to read this: Buyer’s market = more than 10% more sellers than buyers. Seller’s market = more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers. Buyer surplus (seller’s market table) shows how much buyers outnumber sellers. All estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
Source: Redfin Buyers vs. Sellers Report, August 13, 2026. Metro-level estimates based on Redfin proprietary data and MLS active listings.
Sun Belt cities dominate the buyer’s market rankings
Miami was the nation’s strongest buyer’s market in July, with an estimated 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville, Tennessee (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin, Texas (112%). These markets combine the national affordability squeeze with local dynamics.
Miami’s rising insurance costs, escalating homeowners’ association fees and climate-related risk have stacked onto already-high prices.
Houston, San Antonio and Austin carry some of the most active homebuilding pipelines in the country, inventory keeps landing in a market where buyer demand continues to cool.
In Nashville, local Redfin agent Kristin Sanchez described a market transformed from the frenzied bidding wars of recent years. Buyers now have time to evaluate options and sellers are willing to negotiate.
