CUSMA breakdown could cost Canada over 100,000 jobs: report
“By contrast, the breakdown of USMCA would be accompanied by 214,000 and 102,000 fewer jobs, respectively, in the US and Canada.”
The report models three outcomes following the July 1, 2026, deadline to renew USMCA, which passed without a formal agreement: a Status Quo scenario, a Successful Renegotiation, and a full USMCA Breakdown.
“Many of these jobs would be in manufacturing industries directly impacted by tariffs, but the service sector would also feel the impact as lower disposable income causes households to reduce consumer spending and lower trade, and investment reduces demand for transportation, construction and professional services,” according to the report.
Previously, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) advised Canadian companies to prepare for possible disruption ahead of the formal CUSMA review.
