Brisbane property market update, July 2026

Demand-side factors have all pulled in the same direction. Affordability and mortgage serviceability constraints that emerged late last year, three cash rate rises so far in 2026 that have lifted the cash rate to 4.35 per cent, higher fuel costs and deeply pessimistic consumer confidence following the conflict in Iran and the policy changes coming out of the federal budget have collectively reduced both borrowing capacity and buyer willingness to act.

Sellers have been slower to adjust. Median days on market across Brisbane have lengthened to 23 days, three days longer than a month ago, and sales volumes are now 0.7 per cent lower over the past twelve months. The consequence is that total advertised listings have climbed 23.2 per cent over the year, a substantial acceleration from the 13.6 per cent annual increase recorded in June, as older stock accumulates rather than clears.

New listings tell the opposite story. New listings are only 0.8 per cent higher than a year ago, down sharply from the 11 per cent annual growth reported last month, and are now falling on a month-on-month basis. Vendors without a pressing reason to sell are choosing to wait for conditions to improve rather than test a nervous market.

There remains a considerable mismatch between buyers who assume prices have already fallen a long way and sellers whose expectations remain somewhat firm despite the shift in sentiment. Auction clearance rates across Brisbane fell well below June levels.

Consumer sentiment is still deeply pessimistic, although the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index rose 4.1 per cent over the month to reach 83.9 index points. Sentiment remains 9.9 per cent lower than a year ago, with easing pressure on fuel prices and reduced concern about further rate hikes cited as the reasons behind the improvement.

Brisbane dwelling values

Brisbane dwelling values fell 0.6 per cent in July according to Cotality, a swing of 0.8 percentage points from the 0.2 per cent gain initially reported for June. The median dwelling value now sits at $1,104,094, down from $1,118,306 a month earlier.

Quarterly growth has moved into negative territory at -0.6 per cent, reversing the 1.3 per cent gain recorded in the previous reading, while annual growth has eased to 14.8 per cent from 17.4 per cent. PropTrack data showed a similar trend, with Brisbane dwelling prices down 0.3 per cent over July and annual growth of 11.1 per cent.

Source: Cotality

The stratified data confirms the softening is broad-based but uneven. Over the three months to June, growth across Brisbane’s lowest quartile eased to 2.6 per cent from 4.8 per cent in the previous reading, the middle 50 per cent of the market slowed to 1.6 per cent from 3.9 per cent, and the upper quartile softened to just 0.4 per cent from 2.2 per cent.

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More affordable price points continue to lead, and the pattern is consistent nationally, where upper-quartile values fell 3.2 per cent over the three months to July compared with a 0.3 per cent gain across the lower price tier. The correction is clearly weighted towards higher-value property.

Source: Cotality

Brisbane house values

Brisbane house values fell 0.6 per cent in July according to Cotality, with the median house value now $1,207,039, down from $1,225,350 in June. Quarterly growth has turned negative at -0.9 per cent, from 1.1 per cent a month earlier, while annual growth has eased to 14.3 per cent from 16.8 per cent.

PropTrack data showed a similar result, recording a 0.3 per cent monthly fall in Brisbane house prices through July with annual growth of 9.7 per cent. Brisbane houses nonetheless remain more expensive than in any capital other than Sydney.

Source: Cotality

Brisbane unit values

Brisbane’s unit market again held up better than houses. Unit values fell 0.4 per cent in July to a median of $875,135, down from $885,132 in June. Units were the only Brisbane segment still positive over the quarter, up 0.4 per cent, although this was well down on the 2.2 per cent recorded a month ago.

Annual growth eased to 17.1 per cent from 20.3 per cent, still the strongest of any dwelling type in the city and materially ahead of the 14.3 per cent recorded for houses. PropTrack showed a similar trend with a monthly fall of 0.2 per cent and annual growth of 15.2 per cent. This relative strength continues to reflect affordability-driven demand at a time when borrowing capacity is constrained.

Source: Cotality

Brisbane’s rental market

In contrast to values, Brisbane’s rental market is showing renewed pressure. The vacancy rate across Greater Brisbane remained at 0.9 per cent in July, unchanged from the previous month and well below the national vacancy rate of 1.7 per cent and its ten-year average of 2.4 per cent.

Annual house rent growth lifted slightly to 6.7 per cent from 6.6 per cent, while annual unit rent growth accelerated more noticeably to 6.2 per cent from 5.8 per cent. Both measures remain comfortably ahead of inflation and above the national rental growth rate of 5.9 per cent.

Gross rental yields improved for investors over the month. Houses in Greater Brisbane now return 3.2 per cent, up from 3.1 per cent in June, while units returned 4.0 per cent, up from 3.9 per cent. This improvement reflects rents rising while values fall rather than any structural change in returns.

With borrowing costs above 6 per cent and the May federal budget’s negative gearing changes having shifted the calculus for investors, yield gains of this magnitude are unlikely on their own to draw investors back to established stock.

Source: Cotality

Summary

Brisbane may see further softening over the coming months; however, a number of factors reduce the risk of a sharp correction. Unemployment remains low, supporting housing demand and reducing the risk of forced sales, while population growth continues to provide fundamental underpinning for demand.

Brisbane also has approximately $10.3 billion of infrastructure investment, $8 billion of commercial development and $2.8 billion of residential development underway. This investment should support employment, improve accessibility and reinforce demand in suburbs benefiting directly from new transport, services and amenity.

On the supply side, high construction costs and challenges regarding project feasibility remain a constraint to new homes, while vendors appear to be pulling back from the market. Together, these responses could start to limit some of the downward pressure on values.

Well-located established houses should continue to attract a scarcity premium. While the broader development pipeline is valued at approximately $22.7 billion, it is heavily weighted towards infrastructure, commercial projects, units and residential land rather than completed detached houses. Established family homes close to employment, transport, schools and lifestyle amenities are therefore unlikely to become materially easier to replace.

Brisbane will also become an increasingly fragmented market and should not be assessed as one uniform market. The most probable outcome is not another period of uniform rapid growth, but more selective performance in which high-quality property continues to outperform.

July 2026 marks the point at which Brisbane’s slowdown became a decline, with values falling, listings accumulating and buyers holding back.

Yet the fundamentals that underpinned the past decade of growth have not disappeared. Housing construction is not keeping pace with demand, rental vacancies remain exceptionally low, and substantial infrastructure investment continues across the city.

Reported medians may soften further, and owners who are not currently selling should read this as a shift in what is transacting rather than a like-for-like fall in the value of their own property.

For prepared buyers with secure employment and sufficient borrowing capacity, the combination of more stock, longer decision-making timeframes and stronger negotiating conditions represents an opportunity that is unlikely to persist once confidence returns.