Funding Circle is an unloved fintech going cheap
Investors have struggled to understand Funding Circle (LSE: FCH) since its initial public offering (IPO) in 2018. The City had been looking for a valuation of £1.75 billion, but the fintech could only get away with £1.5 billion – even though half the offer was taken up by one single “whale” investor. The shares then fell 23% in the first week of trading, and they have never recovered to trade above the offer price of 440p.
However, after a long spell marred by poor returns, losses and uncertainty, the outlook may now be improving. To see why, we should first look at what the business does and how the model has changed.
Funding Circle’s business model and change of direction
Funding Circle was founded to help improve access to finance for the UK’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by connecting investors and borrowers. In its first few years, the company spent heavily on technology to build its platform and marketing to reach to potential customers. These efforts consumed all of its profits and more. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the business lost a total of £230 million.
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Initially, it started off as a peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform connecting retail investors with SMEs that wanted to borrow. This was designed to disrupt the traditional lending market where a lender uses its own balance sheet to fund loans.
Instead, Funding Circle provided the technology that sat in the middle connecting the two parties. However, this proved to be too costly to be effective. So the group suspended access to its P2P platform to new investors in April 2020 at the start of the pandemic and permanently closed the platform in 2022.
The pandemic enabled Funding Circle to make the most of government lending schemes, allowing the business to drastically reduce costs. This is the model it still uses today. A combination of government financing and institutional-backed lending meets the group’s funding needs.
The company reaped the benefits of this shift almost immediately. For the 2021 financial year, it booked a profit of £64 million, a sharp turnaround from the prior year’s loss of £108 million. Most of this growth was driven by the government’s Bounce Back Loan scheme during the pandemic. In the following two years, Funding Circle slumped back to a loss. Then, after two years of losses (totalling £40 million), it returned to profitability in 2024. This time it looks as if the lender has cracked the code.
Funding Circle is at inflection point
Funding Circle has now reached “escape velocity” after reaching a “key earnings inflection point”, say brokers Canaccord Genuity. For 2025, the group reported sales of £204 million and adjusted profit before tax of £26 million. In the first six months of the current financial year, management has outlined revenue growth of 50%, with £23 million of profit before tax at a 17% margin.
The firm tends to see more borrowing activity in the first half of the year. Even so, based on activity in the second half of 2025 and first half of 2026, Canaccord Genuity estimates a run-rate of more than £250 million of revenue and £37 million of profit before tax. These numbers are all the more impressive considering the funding environment. The last time the company was this profitable was during the pandemic, when demand was high and money was cheap. Today, rates are still elevated and economic activity is mixed, to say the least.
Funding Circle has always had a technological edge. This allows it to assess borrowers quickly and efficiently before making a lending decision. The group also now runs servicing, reporting and performance history at a scale that is difficult for newer entrants to replicate. That’s why it’s become good at attracting institutional capital. Its well-honed, home-grown tech does the hard work, giving capital providers the returns they require with low risk.
In the first half of the year, the company inked £900 million of forward flow agreements – commitments from funders to purchase a regular stream of newly created loans – with lenders such as Deutsche Bank. A total of 93% of assets under management now relate to this off-balance sheet funding.
Funding Circle has an edge in information
Meanwhile, Funding Circle has branched out into new products, including short-term lending. In doing so, it has evolved from a term loan provider into a broader SME finance platform built around three customer propositions: long and short-term loans, FlexiPay (buy now pay later) and credit cards.
These increase the platform’s appeal to borrowers, while also helping Funding Circle enhance its information edge. A borrower that uses all of these products generates a huge amount of data to feed back into Funding Circle’s lending models. Those models now have 15 years of proprietary data across credit cycles to underpin lending decisions.
As Funding Circle builds on the foundations that it has created, profit growth should accelerate over the next few years. Canaccord Genuity has pencilled in top-line growth of 50% to nearly £300 million by 2028. As the group scales its tech platform, its adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin will expand from 15.3% to 27.6% according to the broker. Ebitda is forecast at £82.2 million for 2028, with profit before tax rising to £72 million.
(Image credit: Future)
Cash balances are also expected to rise materially, from £101 million at the end of 2025 to £257 million by 2028. Based on these forecasts and at a share price of 226p, Funding Circle is trading at eight times pre-tax profits for 2028 after adjusting for cash, with a projected free cash flow yield of 15%. That’s far too cheap for a business that’s set to grow its top line at a compound annual rate of more than 20% for the foreseeable future.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek’s magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
