Mortgage Rates Today, Friday, July 31: A Little Higher
Mortgage rates are higher today, as reports of Iranian strikes on multiple countries in the region threaten to expand the scope of the war. When fighting in Iran accelerates, it tends to push up oil prices. Mortgage rates usually follow suit.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.7% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is nine basis points higher than yesterday but three basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
This brings July’s average 30-year rate to 6.5%, up 16 basis points from June’s average of 6.34%. This marks the highest monthly average reading since August 2025.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
These already feel like old news, and, frankly, did before they even happened. June’s PCE reflects a calmer period before the Iran ceasefire collapsed in early July, before oil prices resumed their volatile yo-yoing. With global oil benchmark prices surging past $100 a barrel last week, June’s inflation picture is already looking dated.
Next week, the Nerds are looking to the July jobs report. This is a little more exciting, since it will capture employers’ initial reactions to the war restarting — and with it, a renewed possibility of rising inflation on the horizon.
If the data shows that hiring slowed this month, the Fed could be in a pickle come September.
While most analysts have speculated that central bankers will raise rates at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, doing so could send the unemployment rate further up. On the other hand, if employment seems manageable, it will further cement the likelihood that higher rates are coming in September.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.2% or higher.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
