Canadians’ pessimism about economy is fading despite trade war, poll says

By Erik Hertzberg and Mario Baker Ramirez

(Bloomberg) — Canadians are shaking off months of economic pessimism as worries about weak growth and higher energy prices fade.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index rose to 52.55 in the week ended July 24, up from the recent trough of 46.31 at the beginning of April. A reading above 50 indicates net positive views.

While the gauge remains below its historical average, Canadians are becoming less gloomy about the economy. The share of respondents who see it worsening over the next six months fell to 34.4%, the lowest reading since November 2024, the month Donald Trump was elected as U.S. president.

The survey shows Canadians are feeling better about their wallets, too. The proportion of respondents saying their finances are worse off than a year ago also fell to 34.4%. That’s about where it was at the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict in February.

The data back up some of the more positive views presented by the Bank of Canada this month, when policymakers held borrowing costs steady for a sixth consecutive meeting.

“After stalling over the past year, economic growth looks to have resumed in Canada,” Governor Tiff Macklem said on July 15. “While U.S. trade policy continues to be a headwind, consumers have been resilient and businesses are adapting.”

Retail data released Thursday by Statistics Canada also showed signs of consumer resilience, with growth in purchases broadening beyond gasoline and the agency forecasting a sixth consecutive increase in sales.

Still, the stabilization of sentiment may prove temporary. Trump escalated his tariff threats against Canada last week, potentially injecting more uncertainty for consumers and businesses. Oil and gasoline prices have also risen since armed conflict between the U.S. and Iran reignited.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is based on a four-week rolling average of interviews with about 1,000 Canadians. It measures perceptions related to personal finances, job security, economic strength and real estate values. The poll has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Last modified: July 27, 2026