Sensex sinks over 2,000 points in 5 days. How scary do the charts look for next week?
The Nifty lost another 102 points on Friday, extending its decline for a fifth consecutive session. Investor sentiment remained subdued as Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel following a fresh escalation in the Middle East, reviving concerns over inflation and the domestic economy.
Disappointing quarterly earnings from select large-cap companies and continued weakness in the rupee also weighed on sentiment. The dollar-rupee exchange rate held near 96.55, while surging energy costs and persistent supply-chain concerns added to market volatility.
The charts now point to a sharp deterioration in the short-term setup. Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty slipped out of its consolidation on Thursday before follow-up selling took it to 23,600 on Friday. The index has also fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average, confirming a new short-term downtrend.
“The weekly chart looks more scary,” De told ET Markets. Over the past four weeks, the Nifty has repeatedly failed to move above its 50-week exponential moving average as selling remained strong at higher levels and buying support stayed fragmented.
Also Read | MTF risk grows as investors borrow record Rs 1.36 lakh crore to buy stocks. What happens if the market falls?
For traders, 23,600 has emerged as the most consequential level for next week. “A fall below 23600 might trigger a severe correction, as investors would be running away, putting the Nifty at greater downside risk,” De said.On the upside, 24,000 has become the line of polarity. The broader trend is likely to remain weak unless the index reclaims that level, according to De.
Friday’s sharp recovery from the intraday lows, however, offers a limited counterpoint to the bearish weekly structure. Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, said the Nifty formed a sizable green candle at the lows, signalling the emergence of some buying interest.
The index is positioned at the crucial 23,600 support, which coincides with the opening upside gap of June 15 and an ascending trend line. That creates the possibility of a near-term relief rally even though the short-term trend has weakened sharply.
Shetti expects the Nifty could bounce toward the immediate resistance at 24,200 next week before coming under pressure again. While the short-term trend has turned bearish, he said the medium- to long-term uptrend remains intact.
The technical roadmap for next week is therefore narrow. The Nifty must first defend 23,600, reclaim 24,000 and then attempt a move toward 24,200. Failure to hold the lower end could open the door to a much sharper decline.
Also Read | All bad news is priced in, but don’t call it a bull market yet: SAMCO MF CEO Viraj Gandhi
The macroeconomic backdrop offers little immediate comfort. Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said market sentiment is likely to remain under pressure if oil prices stay elevated, potentially hurting key economic indicators and growth dynamics.
“The US 10-year yield has climbed to a 52-week high despite crude oil trading well below its crisis-era peak, reflecting the bond market’s concerns over energy-led inflation risks, resilient labour market conditions, and a persistently hawkish Fed,” Nair said.
Those factors have raised the implied probability of a US rate increase in September. New US tariffs on imports have added another headwind for export-oriented economies, while higher interest rates have weighed particularly heavily on technology-focused markets.
India’s dependence on imported oil is also returning as a central market risk. VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea had aggravated the West Asia crisis and pushed crude prices higher.
“When Brent crude trades above $95, which is the price now, it is bound to have sentimental impact on the Indian market. India’s vulnerability to high oil price is once again becoming a macro concern,” Vijayakumar said.
He expects negative sentiment to keep stock prices largely subdued, but said the correction could create opportunities for long-term investors to gradually accumulate high-quality companies in growth segments. Banking stocks appear attractively valued in the context of strong credit growth and very low non-performing assets, he said.
Markets will now track upcoming corporate earnings, crude oil prices and defensive allocation strategies. Domestic retail liquidity remains robust, but the charts suggest buyers will need to defend 23,600 before any credible recovery can begin.
