US housing starts rebound in June, but single-family woes deepen
Rates and unsold inventory keep builders cautious
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.55% for the week ending July 16 up from 6.49% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS).
Odeta Kushi of First American says demographic demand and life events continue to support the housing market, even as higher mortgage rates and a slower labor market influence buyer confidence.https://t.co/x2Vh3pc5If
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) July 16, 2026
The rate has risen roughly 60 basis points since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February, reaching an 11-month high. That environment has forced builders to lean heavily on sales incentives to move a stock of unsold new homes hovering near levels last seen in late 2007.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell two points to 34 in July, the 15th consecutive month below 40, the longest such run since 2012 — with 37% of builders reporting price cuts, up from 35% in June, per NAHB.
“Many potential buyers remain on the sidelines as they wait for lower mortgage rates, more certainty on inflation and a clearer economic outlook,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens.
Meanwhile, housing completions rose 3.3% in June to 1,392,000, with single-family completions up 6.6% to 964,000, adding near-term supply even as the forward pipeline weakens. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects the 30-year fixed rate will remain in the 6.1%–6.3% range through year-end 2026.
